🚨 CRYPTO'S REAL PROBLEM: IT'S NOT LIQUIDITY—IT'S UNCERTAINTY
Liquidity is flooding back in:
- QT officially over
- Fed restarting balance sheet expansion
- Treasury pumping cash via buybacks & TGA
- China + Canada easing aggressively
- Global M2 trending toward new ATHs
Yet Bitcoin stalls. Alts bleed harder.
This isn't a liquidity issue. Markets hate one thing more than tightening: **not knowing what's next**.
Past cycles proved it:
- 2020-2021: Endless easing = clear path → BTC mooned
- 2023: Aggressive hiking = painful but predictable → BTC ripped anyway
Now? Total fog.
- Fed deeply divided on cuts vs pause vs inflation rebound
- BOJ tightening timeline unknown
- Trade wars, tariffs, geopolitics looming
- Trump policies incoming but details murky
No clear macro roadmap = risk assets trapped in chop. Every pump gets sold, every dip feels endless.
Thesis: This uncertainty drags on until **Q2 2026**—new Trump-appointed Fed Chair takes seat, policy alignment emerges, rate path crystallizes.
That's when clarity returns.
That's when liquidity finally translates into sustained risk-on fire.
That's when the real bull resumes.
Until then? Grind, accumulate quietly, preserve capital.
The patient win the next leg up. 🧠💎
