Gold Market Outlook for Next Week: Strong Support and Fluctuating Pattern, Data Dominates Short-Term Direction

Overnight spot gold surged and then retreated, reaching $4353 per ounce during the session, before falling back to around $4300 after approaching the October high. After stabilizing above the key support level of $4200, the long-term upward foundation for gold remains solid, while short-term fluctuations between bulls and bears are intensifying, with opportunities and risks escalating simultaneously. Next week, the market will fully enter a key trading window dominated by data.

The long-term support logic for gold is clear, with three core dimensions solidifying the underlying strength: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle continues, with the benchmark rate falling to the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and a weakening dollar continues to enhance the attractiveness of gold allocation; the global central bank gold purchasing trend continues, with the People's Bank of China having increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, providing solid support for gold prices from institutional demand; the supply-demand pattern remains tight, with limited increases on the mining side, and strong demand from technology manufacturing and consumption forming the foundational support for rising gold prices.

Short-term market trends focus on two key variables that dominate the direction of gold price fluctuations: first, next week's U.S. CPI and employment data, which serve as the core anchor points for guiding gold prices. If the year-on-year CPI growth rate is below 2.8%, gold prices are expected to challenge the $4350-$4380 range; if it is in the 2.8%-3.0% range, it will likely maintain fluctuations between $4220 and $4300; if it breaks above 3.0%, it may test the support level of $4150-$4200. Second, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts and the expectation gap regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction will further amplify price volatility.

Two potential risks must be heeded to avoid phase adjustment pressure: the technical overbought signals are emerging, and profit-taking by long positions may trigger a short-term pullback; if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations strongly, it will drive a rebound in the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices.

Overall, next week the gold market is still in a fluctuating consolidation pattern under strong support, with no fundamental change in the long-term upward trend, and short-term market dynamics anchored by data guidance. It is recommended that investors maintain rational positioning, abandon emotional trading, prioritize risk control, and accurately seize trading opportunities driven by data. $ETH $XRP $ZEC #美联储降息 #加密市场观察 #美联储FOMC会议