$MERL Recently, this wave of rebound has seen a 24H increase of over 17%, with the price briefly breaking above 0.44 USDT, currently oscillating in the 0.43-0.45 range, and the market capitalization has also entered the top 100, showing a good momentum.

However, in reality, this is more about the behavior of market makers pulling the price up during the weekend when liquidity is lower, which can easily induce retail investors to chase the rise.

From a technical perspective, the resistance zone of 0.44-0.46 has been tested multiple times without effectively breaking through, and the strength of the rebound is getting weaker, with the overall structure already turning weak. The difficulty of continuing to attack in the short term is very high, and it may shift to a downward trend at any time.

The pressure on the supply side is even greater, as a concentrated unlocking is expected in mid to late December, with a large number of low-cost tokens entering circulation. The market's expectation of this wave of 'supply flood' will suppress buying enthusiasm, and holders tend to reduce their positions when prices are high, significantly compressing the rebound space.

On-chain data also shows that large holders have recently made large-scale transfers to exchanges, which usually indicates preparation to sell, especially on the eve of unlocking. This behavior is easily interpreted by the market as a bearish signal, further amplifying the expectation of selling pressure.

In summary, with technical resistance, the upcoming unlocking selling pressure, and unusual on-chain capital movements, the combination of these three factors indicates that the certainty and intensity of selling pressure are significantly higher than the support from buying, resulting in a clear bearish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to resistance levels near 0.44-0.46 and consider placing short positions when prices are high.