THE CRYPTO MARKET ISN’T UNDERPERFORMING DUE TO LACK OF LIQUIDITY.

It’s underperformance because no one knows what comes next.

- Liquidity is improving; QT is over.

- The Fed has started adding liquidity again.

- The US Treasury is pushing cash back into markets through buybacks and TGA flows.

- China and Canada are easing.

- Global liquidity is moving back toward ATH

And yet, Bitcoin isn't moving.

Altcoins are performing even worse.

This shows the problem isn’t liquidity; it’s uncertainty, and the market hates uncertainty.

In past cycles, crypto performed well even during tightening, as long as the macro path was clear.

In 2020-2021, the Fed’s stance was simple: Ongoing easing.

Liquidity was coming, and everyone knew it.

Bitcoin pumped hard.

In 2023, the Fed was hiking rates, yet BTC rallied.

Why?

Because the path was clear.

Rates would rise until inflation cooled.

But now the situation is different.

The Fed itself is divided.

Some members want more cuts.

Some want to pause.

Some believe inflation is finished.

Others think its full impact hasn’t even shown up yet.

Global policy is also unclear.

Markets don’t know how far or how fast the Bank of Japan may tighten.

Apart from that, trade war and geopolitical war situations are adding more uncertainty.

Because there's no clear macro direction about what is coming next, risk-on assets like BTC and alts are struggling to perform.

This is also a reason why every Bitcoin pump often retraces quickly and altcoins underperform even when liquidity data looks positive.

IMO, this uncertainty phase likely lasts until around Q2 2026, when a new Fed Chair appointed by Trump is expected to take over, alongside more aligned leadership.

Once that happens, the policy becomes clearer:

when to cut, how much to cut, and how much liquidity to inject.

This is when I'll probably start allocating heavily back into the markets again.$BTC $BNB $ETH