At the end of the year, various institutions released their year-end reviews and outlook reports.

Article author, source: MarsBit

In accordance with the principle of not reading long reports, we also attempt to quickly summarize and distill the long reports from various sources.

This report comes from CoinShare, a leading digital asset investment management company in Europe founded in 2014, headquartered in London, UK, and Paris, France, managing over $6 billion in assets.

This 77-page report (Outlook 2026: The Year Utility Wins) covers core topics such as macroeconomic fundamentals, Bitcoin mainstreaming, the rise of hybrid finance, competition among smart contract platforms, and the evolution of the regulatory landscape, along with in-depth analysis of subfields like stablecoins, tokenized assets, prediction markets, mining transformation, and venture capital.

Here are our distilled summaries and insights from this report:

One, core theme: The arrival of the year of utility

2025 is a turning point year for the digital asset industry, where Bitcoin sets a historic high, and the industry shifts from speculation-driven to utility-driven.

2026 is expected to be 'the year of utility wins', where digital assets no longer attempt to replace the traditional financial system but instead enhance and modernize existing systems.

The core viewpoint of the report is that 2025 marks a decisive shift of digital assets from speculation-driven to utility-driven value, and 2026 will be a key year for accelerating this transformation.

Digital assets no longer attempt to build a parallel financial system but instead enhance and modernize the existing traditional financial system. The integration of public blockchains, institutional liquidity, regulatory market structures, and real economic use cases is progressing at a pace that exceeds optimistic expectations.

Two, macroeconomic foundations and market outlook

Economic environment: A soft landing on thin ice

Growth expectations: The economy may avoid recession in 2026, but growth is weak and fragile. Inflation is easing but not decisively, with tariff disruptions and supply chain restructuring keeping core inflation at high levels not seen since the early 1990s.

Federal Reserve policy: A cautious rate cut is expected, with the target rate possibly dropping to around 3%, but the process will be slow. The Federal Reserve is still wary of the inflation surge in 2022 and is reluctant to pivot quickly.

Three scenario analyses:

· Optimistic scenario: Soft landing + productivity surprise, Bitcoin could break through $150,000

· Benchmark scenario: Slow expansion, with Bitcoin trading in the range of $110,000 to $140,000

· Bear market scenario: Recession or stagflation, Bitcoin could drop to the range of $70,000 to $100,000.

The slow erosion of the dollar's reserve status

The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen from 70% in 2000 to the current mid-50% range. Emerging market central banks are diversifying their holdings, increasing assets like the renminbi and gold. This creates structural benefits for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value.

Three, the mainstreaming process of Bitcoin in the United States

The United States achieved several key breakthroughs in 2025, including:

· Approval and launch of spot ETFs

· Top ETF options market formation

· Retirement plan restrictions lifted

· Application of fair value accounting rules for enterprises

· The US government lists Bitcoin as a strategic reserve

Institutional adoption is still in its early stages

Despite structural barriers being lifted, actual adoption is still limited by traditional financial processes and intermediaries. Wealth management channels, retirement plan providers, and corporate compliance teams are still gradually adapting.

Expectations for 2026

Key progress is expected from the private sector: The Big Four brokerages will open up Bitcoin ETF allocations, at least one major 401(k) provider will allow Bitcoin allocations, at least two S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin, and at least two major custodian banks will offer direct custody services.

Four, risks of miners and corporate holdings

The scale of corporate holdings surges

From 2024 to 2025, publicly listed companies' Bitcoin holdings increased from 266,000 to 1,048,000 coins, with a total value rising from $11.7 billion to $90.7 billion. Strategy (MSTR) accounts for 61%, with the top 10 companies controlling 84%.

Potential sell-off risks

Strategy faces two major risks:

· Unable to fund perpetual debt and cash flow obligations (annual cash flow nearing $680 million)

· Refinancing risk (recently maturing bonds are due in September 2028)

If mNAV approaches 1x or cannot refinance at zero interest rates, it may be forced to sell Bitcoin, triggering a vicious cycle.

Options market and declining volatility

The development of the IBIT options market has reduced Bitcoin's volatility, marking a sign of maturation. However, declining volatility may weaken demand for convertible bonds, impacting corporate purchasing power. A turning point in declining volatility was observed in the spring of 2025.

Five, differentiation in the regulatory landscape

European Union: Clarity of MiCA

The European Union has the most comprehensive legal framework for crypto assets globally, covering issuance, custody, trading, and stablecoins. However, 2025 exposed coordination limitations, and some national regulators may challenge cross-border passports.

United States: Innovation and fragmentation

The US regains momentum with the deepest capital markets and a mature venture capital ecosystem, but regulation remains fragmented across multiple agencies like the SEC, CFTC, and the Federal Reserve. Stablecoin legislation (the GENIUS Act) has been passed, but implementation is still underway.

Asia: Moving towards prudent regulation

Regions like Hong Kong and Japan are advancing Basel III crypto capital and liquidity requirements, while Singapore maintains a risk-based licensing system. Asia is forming a more coherent regulatory group, aligning around risk-based banking standards.

The rise of hybrid finance

Infrastructure and settlement layer

Stablecoins: Market size exceeds $300 billion, with Ethereum holding the largest share and Solana growing the fastest. The GENIUS Act requires compliant issuers to hold reserves in US Treasury bonds, creating new demand for Treasury bonds.

Decentralized trading platforms: Monthly trading volume exceeds $600 billion, with Solana processing $40 billion in transactions per day.

Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA)

The total value of tokenized assets increased from $15 billion at the beginning of 2025 to $35 billion. Private credit and tokenized US Treasury bonds are growing the fastest, with gold tokens exceeding $1.3 billion. BlackRock's BUIDL fund assets have significantly expanded, and JPMorgan launched JPMD tokenized deposits on Base.

Revenue-generating on-chain applications

An increasing number of protocols are generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue and distributing it to token holders. Hyperliquid uses 99% of revenue to buy back tokens daily, and Uniswap and Lido have launched similar mechanisms. This marks a shift of tokens from purely speculative assets to equity-like assets.

Seven, the dominance of stablecoins and corporate adoption

Market concentration

Tether (USDT) holds 60% of the stablecoin market, and Circle (USDC) holds 25%. New entrants like PayPal's PYUSD face challenges from network effects, making it difficult to disrupt the duopoly.

Expectations for corporate adoption in 2026

Payment processors: Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, and others have structural advantages, allowing them to transition to stablecoin settlements without changing the front-end experience.

Banks: JPMorgan's JPM Coin has demonstrated potential, with Siemens reporting foreign exchange savings of 50%, and settlement times reduced from several days to seconds.

E-commerce platforms: Shopify has accepted USDC for checkout, and markets in Asia and Latin America are pilot testing stablecoin supplier payments.

Impact on revenue

Stablecoin issuers face the risk of declining interest rates: If the Federal Reserve's rate drops to 3%, they would need to issue $88.7 billion in stablecoins to maintain current interest income.

Eight, analyzing the competitive landscape of trading platforms using Porter's Five Forces model

Existing competitors: Competition is intense and escalating, with fee rates dropping to low single-digit basis points.

Threats from new entrants: Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley E*TRADE and Charles Schwab are preparing to enter, but will rely on partners in the short term.

Supplier bargaining power: Stablecoin issuers (like Circle) enhance control through the Arc mainnet. The revenue-sharing agreement between Coinbase and Circle regarding USDC is crucial.

Customer bargaining power: Institutional clients account for over 80% of Coinbase's trading volume, possessing strong bargaining power. Retail users are sensitive to prices.

Threats from alternatives: Decentralized trading platforms like Hyperliquid, prediction markets like Polymarket, and CME crypto derivatives constitute competition.

Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2026, with trading platforms and large banks acquiring customers, licenses, and infrastructure through mergers and acquisitions.

Nine, competition among smart contract platforms

Ethereum: From sandbox to institutional infrastructure

Ethereum achieves scalability through the Rollup central roadmap, with Layer-2 throughput increasing from 200 TPS a year ago to 4800 TPS. Validators are pushing to increase the base layer Gas limit. The US spot Ethereum ETF attracts around $13 billion in inflows.

In terms of institutional tokenization, BlackRock's BUIDL fund and JPMorgan's JPMD demonstrate Ethereum's potential as an institutional-grade platform.

Solana: High-performance paradigm

Solana stands out with its highly optimized execution environment, accounting for about 7% of DeFi's total TVL. The supply of stablecoins exceeds $12 billion (growing from $1.8 billion in January 2024), RWA projects are expanding, and BlackRock's BUIDL increased from $25 million in September to $250 million.

Technological upgrades include the Firedancer client, DoubleZero validator communication network, etc. The spot ETF launched on October 28 has attracted $382 million in net inflows.

Other high-performance chains

New generation Layer-1s like Sui, Aptos, Sei, Monad, and Hyperliquid compete through architectural differentiation. Hyperliquid focuses on derivatives trading, accounting for more than one-third of total blockchain revenue. However, market fragmentation is severe, and EVM compatibility becomes a competitive advantage.

Ten, mining transformation HPC (High-Performance Computing Center)

Expansion in 2025

Listed miners' hash power grew by 110 EH/s, mainly from Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, and Iris Energy.

HPC transformation

Miners announced $65 billion worth of HPC contracts, with Bitcoin mining revenue share expected to drop from 85% to below 20% by the end of 2026. The HPC business operating profit margin reaches 80-90%.

Future mining models

Mining in the future is expected to be dominated by the following models: ASIC manufacturers, modular mining, intermittent mining (coexisting with HPC), and sovereign nation mining. In the long term, mining may return to small-scale decentralized operations.

Eleven, trends in venture capital

Recovery in 2025

Crypto venture capital financing reached $18.8 billion, surpassing the total for all of 2024 ($16.5 billion). This was primarily driven by large transactions: Polymarket received $2 billion in strategic investment (from ICE), Stripe's Tempo received $500 million, and Kalshi received $300 million.

Four major trends in 2026

RWA tokenization: Securitize's SPAC, Agora's $50 million Series A, etc., demonstrate institutional interest.

The combination of AI and crypto: Applications like AI agents and natural language trading interfaces are accelerating.

Retail investment platforms: Echo (acquired by Coinbase for $375 million), Legion and other decentralized angel investment platforms are emerging.

Bitcoin infrastructure: Layer-2 and Lightning network-related projects are gaining attention.

Twelve, the rise of prediction markets

Polymarket's weekly trading volume exceeded $800 million during the 2024 US election period, with post-election activity remaining strong. Its predictive accuracy has been validated: events with a 60% probability occurred about 60% of the time, and events with an 80% probability occurred about 77-82% of the time.

In October 2025, ICE made a strategic investment of up to $2 billion in Polymarket, marking recognition from mainstream financial institutions. Weekly trading volume in 2026 is expected to possibly exceed $2 billion.

Thirteen, key conclusions

Maturation accelerates: Digital assets are shifting from speculation-driven to utility value and cash flow-driven, with tokens increasingly resembling equity assets.

The rise of hybrid finance: The integration of public blockchains with traditional financial systems is no longer theoretical but has become visible through strong growth in stablecoins, tokenized assets, and on-chain applications.

Increased regulatory clarity: The US GENIUS Act, EU MiCA, and Asia's prudent regulatory framework lay the foundation for institutional adoption.

Institutional adoption is gradual: Although structural barriers have been lifted, actual adoption will take years, and 2026 will be a year of incremental progress for the private sector.

The competitive landscape is reshaping: Ethereum remains dominant but faces challenges from high-performance chains like Solana, with EVM compatibility becoming a key advantage.

Risks and opportunities coexist: The high concentration of corporate holdings brings sell-off risks, but emerging fields such as institutional tokenization, stablecoin adoption, and prediction markets offer significant growth potential.

Overall, 2026 will be a key year for digital assets to move from the margins to the mainstream, from speculation to utility, and from fragmentation to integration.