12.14 Midday Market Analysis

The current price of Bitcoin is hovering around the $90,000 range, trapped in a liquidity drought-style consolidation, with a 24-hour fluctuation of only 868 (highest 90,634 / lowest 89,766). A trading volume of 540 million USDT highlights the market's quietness, with both bulls and bears temporarily forming a balance at this price level.

This prolonged sideways movement is essentially a "sideways instead of down"—the market is digesting selling pressure over time, although there are occasional spikes testing support; the quick pullback confirms the effectiveness of the consolidation range. The technical indicators present obvious contradictory signals: a golden cross appears below the MACD zero line, and the histogram turns positive, suggesting a decline in downward momentum; however, the EMA moving averages remain in a bearish arrangement, and the trend has not yet reversed, perfectly fitting the characteristics of a volatile market where bulls and bears are testing.

The fundamentals are a mixed bag: institutional buying has not halted (Brazil's major bank recommends allocation, continuous capital inflow into US spot ETFs) building bottom support, while expectations of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan and other macro uncertainties suppress risk appetite, forming the core logic behind the market's cautious sideways movement.

• Swing Trading: Relying on the lower support zone of the consolidation range at 88,500-89,000 for low buying, targeting the upper range of 90,500-91,000 for profit-taking, setting a stop-loss below 88,000 USD (to avoid breakout risks).

• Core Principle: The longer the consolidation period, the stronger the subsequent directional breakout will be. It is necessary to prepare for both upward breakout accumulation and downward breakout stop-loss simultaneously, avoiding misjudgment in a single direction. #加密市场反弹