The old cycle revolves around "halving narrative + retail sentiment": The past three halvings (2013, 2017, 2021) were dominated by retail and driven by sentiment, forming a precise cycle where "halving means bull market". However, three irreversible changes are occurring in the current market: First, the iteration of buyer entities—after the SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. in 2024, long-term capital such as pension funds and insurance money will enter through ETFs, shifting decision-making logic from emotional to rational (for example, the California Public Employees' Retirement Fund took 6 months to assess and allocated 0.3% of its assets), and pricing power will shift from retail to institutions; second, the inertia of asset size—Bitcoin's market capitalization has grown from $1 billion in 2013 to $23 trillion in 2025, with supply and demand forces reversing (BlackRock's IBIT saw an inflow of $3.2 billion in one day vs. $4 million in new supply from halving), making the halving event go from a "decisive variable" to a "marginal factor"; third, macro liquidity dominance—by 2025, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will reach 0.93 (only 0.32 before 2020), with prices highly bound to macro policies, rendering the old cycle's "code-driven" logic ineffective.
The core driving force of the super cycle is the collaboration between institutional and sovereign capital. The institutional side shows a 'three-stage rocket' model: ETFs become a compliant channel (the global Bitcoin spot ETF scale exceeds $120 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $80 billion), corporate balance sheet allocation (Microsoft holds 200,000 units, Tesla allocates 1.8 billion Bitcoin to combat inflation), financial infrastructure upgrades (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley promote custody services). Sovereign capital is accelerating its entry: Texas has established a state-level Bitcoin reserve through legislation (the first $5 million), with six states following; many countries globally (El Salvador, Brazil, Russia, etc.) are incorporating Bitcoin into reserves or cross-border settlements, pushing it from 'private asset' to 'quasi-reserve asset' upgrade.
In the face of change, investors need to 'upgrade their cognition': establish a three-layer analytical system of 'macro (Federal Reserve policy) - meso (institutional capital flow) - micro (on-chain data)', focusing on core indicators such as ETF net inflows, listed company financial reports, sovereign fund statements; at the same time, be vigilant about risks—regulatory fragmentation (U.S. SEC's qualitative swings, high compliance costs of EU MiCA), market structure vulnerabilities (institutional capital flows can trigger severe volatility), Bitcoin identity paradox (high volatility makes it difficult to store value/pay). It is recommended to control leverage, diversify allocation, hold for the long term, and focus on the long-term value of blockchain.
The end of the old cycle is a sign of Bitcoin's maturity; the super cycle is capital-driven and the rules are clear, participants need to upgrade their knowledge system and strategies to establish a foothold in the new order.
