On December 13, 2025, when the market falls into a "luring-harvesting" cycle, the weekend's calm may be the best training ground before the storm
Another night controlled by the "dog whale" has passed. This week's rhythm is like a precisely choreographed script—rising, luring, stopping losses, harvesting, repeating endlessly. Last night, DOGE's 1% stop-loss order was accurately triggered, with a floating loss of 200% under 75 times leverage (equivalent to a principal loss of 2%), but this is just the daily routine of traders. The real story is hidden behind the weekend's candlestick charts.
Last night's review: A textbook-style liquidity hunt
A stop-loss is not a failure, but a proof of survival
The execution of the DOGE stop loss was clean and decisive: a 2% loss of principal offset 1-2 times the usual profit. This is not a systemic collapse but a standard volatility loss under high leverage. Six or seven profits plus one stop loss is the survival formula for 75x leveraged trading. The real danger lies in those positions that were not executed—if stop losses are not timely, the psychological pressure after deep losses becomes the biggest enemy of traders.
Core lesson: When signs of "whale" control are evident, a 1% stop loss may be too fragile under high leverage. The key to the weekend review is to recalibrate volatility expectations, not to dwell on individual gains and losses.
Weekend market outlook: The whisper of bears and the trap of bulls
BTC: Heavy resistance, deep layout window opens
Key resistance levels: 96422 / 92228 / 89350 / 88035 / 87250 / 82845
The shrinkage of trading volume in the early morning exposed the truth: the bullish power was exhausted on Friday night. The accumulated chips in the 92228-96422 range need huge funds to be released, and the weekend's liquidity clearly does not support a V-shaped reversal. A more realistic path is:
• Scenario A (60% probability): Low volume sideways or bearish decline, testing the support zone of 88035-87250, creating space for institutional positions on Monday
• Scenario B (30% probability): A hidden bullish raid rebound, but difficult to break through 92228, forming an excellent short entry point.
• Scenario C (10% probability): An unexpected volume breakout at 96422 triggers a bear stampede—but this requires significant external positive news.
Action recommendation: Those holding a 1% position in BTC should immediately close positions to lock in profits. Those out of the market should patiently wait; after breaking the early morning low, that is the time for a 1% long position trial. Focus on the volume changes in the 91900-92228 range; once there is significant volume stagnation, confirm the short signal.
ETH: Main force game under high volatility
Key resistance levels: 3400 / 3170 / 2949 / 2749
This week's amplitude reached $400 (3038-3446), this is not natural trading but the main force controlling under liquidity exhaustion. The second tier position at 3125 is now facing a choice:
• T+0 traders: Use the low volatility over the weekend to grid trade, high sell low buy in the 2949-3170 range.
• Trend trader: Wait for a rebound near 3170 to break even and aim for a lower entry point
• Key signal: Observe whether the breakthrough of 3170 is accompanied by real trading volume; otherwise, consider it a false breakout.
Core logic: The volatility premium of ETH is too high, and it is highly likely to exchange time for space over the weekend to digest this week's drastic fluctuations.
DOGE: Psychological rebuilding after stop losses
Key resistance levels: 0.1145 / 0.13 / 0.137 / 0.1515 / 0.18 / 0.23
200% unrealized loss is a thing of the past. What matters is: your principal is safe and your trading system is complete. If no position was added below 0.1145, the opportunity to average down after a big drop this weekend is to break even or even profit—provided the principle of "averaging down on rebounds, not chasing shorts" is strictly followed.
Mindset management: The issues exposed by this stop loss are not in the strategy but in position management. Under 75x leverage, a 1% stop loss means that a 0.13% price reversal will trigger it. The homework this weekend is to recalculate the reasonable stop loss for DOGE, not to regret.
Trader's weekend survival guide: From stop losses to refinement
Three iron rules
1. Do not engage in counter-trend trading: no V reversal in the early morning proves the bulls are weak. Forcing a long position over the weekend is equivalent to going against the trend.
2. Keep a watch position: If holding 1% each in BTC and DOGE, close BTC to secure profits and keep DOGE for practice.
3. Wait for deep layout: Real opportunities arise after the "panic low" appears, not during intraday rebounds.
Mindset reshaping: Adversity is the best teacher.
Good times hide trading flaws, while bad times expose true levels. This stop loss for DOGE is excellent review material:
• Is your entry logic clear?
• Does the leverage ratio match the stop loss width?
• If you could do it again, where would you optimize?
Calm acceptance, calm analysis, calm waiting—this is the twelve-character mantra for the weekend.
Early morning market outlook: Bearish dominance under low volume consolidation
Crash probability: Low. Without volume support, it is difficult to form a waterfall decline.
Rebound probability: Medium. Be wary of hidden bullish weekend raids, but the height is limited.
Best strategy: Stay in cash and observe, waiting for a 1% long opportunity after breaking the early morning low, or a short signal when BTC shows volume stagnation in the 91900-92228 range.
The weekend is not a trading frenzy but a hunter's stealth. When the market falls into a boring low volatility, real opportunities are brewing. Make the most of these two days to refine your system, adjust your parameters, and by Monday's opening, you will be better prepared than 90% of traders.
Have you ever been harvested by a "whale"? Under 75x leverage, what is your philosophy on stop losses?
Do you think BTC will first touch 88000 or 92000 this weekend? Feel free to leave your judgment in the comments.
—— Every stop loss you take is a stepping stone to profit. This weekend, let the market rest and let you evolve.
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