🕑December 13, despite the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates as expected this week and releasing dovish signals beyond expectations, the real challenges faced in the field of artificial intelligence have led to a complex divergence in the trends of the U.S. stock and bond markets. This week, long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose broadly, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by about 5 basis points during the 'Federal Reserve rate cut week'. The macro outlook for next week is as follows:
Monday 22:30, Federal Reserve Governor Mylan will deliver a speech;
Monday 23:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak on the economic outlook;
Thursday 01:30, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook;
Thursday 21:30, U.S. November unadjusted CPI year-on-year/core CPI year-on-year, U.S. November seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month/core CPI month-on-month;
Thursday 21:30, U.S. initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending December 13;
Friday 23:00, U.S. December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value, U.S. December one-year inflation expectations final value.
Next week's U.S. CPI data release will be a key turning point for the dollar's trajectory. If the CPI data is below expectations (the latest figure is currently 3%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target), it will further confirm the validity of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, and the dollar may face further downward pressure; conversely, it could reverse this trend.
