#美国非农和cpi即将发布影响市场 The non-farm payroll and CPI data for November, which were delayed due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, are scheduled to be released on December 16 and 19, respectively. These two sets of data will reshape the Federal Reserve's expectations for interest rate cuts, having a critical impact on various markets such as U.S. stocks, the dollar, and the bond market, with the specific impact logic as follows:

1. Stock Market: The market generally expects only 35,000 new non-farm jobs in November. If the data is weak or even negative, it will strengthen the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting the valuation recovery of growth and technology stocks, but it will also raise concerns about economic recession, putting pressure on cyclical stocks and other sectors; if the data is surprisingly strong, it may alleviate recession fears but could weaken rate cut expectations, leading to potential sell-offs of high-valuation tech stocks. If the CPI data is below expectations, it will further confirm the rationale for rate cuts and boost overall sentiment in U.S. stocks; if inflation remains high, it will constrain the space for easing policies and bring downward pressure on U.S. stocks.

2. U.S. Dollar: The current dollar trend is particularly sensitive to CPI data. If the CPI is below expectations, the dollar is likely to face further downward pressure; if inflation data exceeds expectations, it could reverse the dollar's recent weakness. The impact of non-farm data also resonates with this; if employment data is weak, combined with rising expectations for rate cuts, the dollar may face further sell-off before the end of the year; if employment is strong, it will enhance the dollar's attractiveness and drive a short-term rebound.

3. Bond Market: Non-farm data has always significantly affected the trading volume of interest rate futures. If employment data falls significantly short of expectations, the market will bet on the Fed accelerating rate cuts, and U.S. Treasury yields are likely to decline, leading to rising bond prices; if the data exceeds expectations, yields may rise. CPI data is also critical; if inflation cools, short-term U.S. Treasury yields may decline more significantly due to rate cut expectations; if inflation remains stubborn, long-term yields may rise due to inflation concerns, thereby impacting the overall pricing of the bond market.

4. Cryptocurrency Market: These assets are sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy. If both non-farm and CPI data point to an easing environment, it will enhance market risk appetite, providing support for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and XRP; conversely, if the data reinforces the Fed's expectations for maintaining high interest rates, cryptocurrencies may retreat alongside risk assets.