Brazil's largest private bank Itaú Unibanco has suggested that investors hold up to 3% of Bitcoin in their portfolio by 2026 — and this is one of those cases where a conservative financial giant says things that make traditionalists' eyes twitch. The recommendation came not from a Telegram chat of enthusiasts, but from an analytical note by Itaú Asset Management — the bank's investment division that is accustomed to counting risks rather than believing in fairy tales.
The author of the study, Renato Eid, immediately outlined the context. Geopolitical tensions, changes in monetary policies, and chronic currency risks have not gone away. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is offered not as a replacement for stocks or bonds, but as an additional element of the structure. Not decoration. Not a toy. But a functional part that works by its own rules.
Why Bitcoin specifically
At Itaú Asset Management, Bitcoin is referred to as an asset with its own logic and dynamics. It does not replicate fixed income behavior, does not copy stock indices, and does not depend on the internal markets of a specific country. Due to its global and decentralized nature, it can perform a currency protective function — in simpler terms, partially compensate for imbalances that traditional instruments cannot handle.
The wording sounds dry, but the meaning is extremely practical. When the national currency behaves too confidently or, conversely, too nervously, the portfolio begins to tilt. And here comes an asset that lives by a different trajectory.
A small share — a noticeable effect
The bank's argument is based not on emotions, but on statistics. Internal data from Itaú shows a low correlation between BITI11 — a local Bitcoin exchange-traded fund — and other major asset classes, both Brazilian and international. Simply put, they rarely fall and rise at the same time.
Hence the recommendation to hold from 1% to 3% of Bitcoin in the portfolio. No more. No less. This share, according to bank calculations, can improve the portfolio balance and smooth out risks that remain uncovered by traditional instruments. Not magic. Mathematics.
low correlation with other assets
diversification potential
currency protective function
The bank goes beyond words
It's important to note that Itaú did not limit itself to research. In September, Itaú Asset Management launched a separate cryptocurrency division and appointed João Marco Braga da Cunha as its head, who previously worked at Hashdex. This is no longer a theory on paper, but institutional infrastructure.
The new division is developing a product line with exposure to digital assets, including Bitcoin ETFs and a pension fund with a cryptocurrency component. Plans include a broader set of solutions: from fixed income logic tools to strategies with increased volatility, including derivatives and staking. Yes, the bank officially acknowledges: there is demand, and it is not going anywhere.
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