When we look at the data of SpotETF investors;
🟢 The prices they prefer to buy are 96k-110k and the range of 116k-126k.
🔴 When we look at the price they prefer to sell (or not buy), we see a range of 74k–95k.
Retail investors have a dilemma. When the price reaches the top, their interest in the market increases, and they want to buy; when the price falls to the bottom, they sell or do not participate in the market, there is no interest.
I personally experience this situation in my social media account. When the price is down, engagement in analyses decreases, and the number of video views declines. After some time, when the price rises and reaches peaks, engagement in videos and analyses increases, and everyone starts asking you: "Should we buy from here?" But you bought in previous months, and now you are preparing to sell. The pattern of retail investor interest in the markets inevitably makes them the exit liquidity for someone, and this behavior causes them to always be on the wrong side. Because after the price reaches the top and it's time to sell, they decide to buy.
However, in the investor market, Spot ETFs are often referred to as "Smart Money, Smart Investor." But when we look at the prices that Spot ETF investors prefer, we see that they buy at peaks and sell at minimum prices.
⚠️ Here we must separate correlation and causation: do price flows create, or does price create these flows? Also, Spot ETFs can buy and sell not only for pure long and short positions but also for more complex arbitrage and hedging. This is important for the full context and should be analyzed further, I realize this.
✅ Nevertheless, when we look at it with a more straightforward logic and when we think of these purchases and sales as "clean positions," a question arises: Is the Spot ETF investor really a smart investor, smart money, as people think? How is this different from retail investors who are always on the wrong side of the deal?
News is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Please read carefully before making any decisions.
