BOJ RAISES INTEREST RATES AND BTC WEAKENS: A PATTERN NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY

History shows that each time the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises interest rates, Bitcoin often faces significant corrections. Data in recent years has recorded BTC dropping about 20–30% after BOJ tightening, reflecting the contraction of global liquidity.

The main mechanism lies in the yen carry trade. When Japanese interest rates rise, the JPY strengthens, forcing low-cost JPY borrowing positions for risk assets to close. This unwinding process creates selling pressure on “high-beta” assets like Bitcoin.

If the BOJ continues to raise interest rates on 19/12, the short-term risks for BTC are real. In a negative scenario, BTC could undergo a deep correction to 70,000 USD or lower. A more average scenario is a correction of 10–15%, as the market has somewhat “priced in” the information. Only if the BOJ signals a softer approach can BTC avoid a sharp drop.

The difference from the past is that there are now BTC spot ETFs and long-term institutional cash flows, which help to reduce the amplitude of corrections. However, 19/12 remains a high-risk time, requiring investors to be cautious, limit leverage, and wait for market reactions following the BOJ's decision. #bitcoin #macroeconomy