$BTC Analysis : Bitcoin Faces Risk of Dropping Below $70,000 Amid Japan’s Hawkish Monetary Policy
Bitcoin could face further downside pressure toward the $70,000 level if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) proceeds with an interest rate hike on December 19, according to several macro analysts.
BoJ Rate Hikes Have Historically Triggered Sharp Bitcoin Corrections
Data compiled by analyst AndrewBTC shows a clear pattern since 2024: every BoJ rate hike has coincided with a Bitcoin drawdown exceeding 20%. BTC fell roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025 following previous policy tightening moves.
AndrewBTC warns that a similar downside scenario could play out again if the BoJ delivers another rate hike at its upcoming meeting. A recent Reuters survey also indicates that most economists expect the BoJ to continue tightening policy in December.
Japan’s Role in Global Liquidity Flows
Historically, BoJ rate hikes tend to strengthen the Japanese yen, raising borrowing costs and reducing the appeal of risk assets. This often forces investors to unwind yen-funded carry trades, leading to a contraction in global liquidity.
When liquidity tightens, Bitcoin typically comes under pressure as traders reduce leverage and de-risk their portfolios amid a broader risk-off environment. Analyst EX notes that, under current macro conditions, Bitcoin could realistically “fall below the $70,000 mark.”
Technical Signals Point to Further Downside Risk
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is forming a classic bear flag pattern, a technical structure that often signals trend continuation to the downside. This pattern emerged after BTC’s sharp sell-off from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow upward consolidation.
If BTC breaks below the lower trendline of the bear flag, a renewed decline toward the $70,000–$72,500 zone becomes increasingly likely. Analysts such as James Check and Sellén have echoed similar bearish scenarios over the past month.
