surely it goes up from here $MAGIC | Cryplon on Binance Square

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Bitcoin Is Playing With Fire And Most People Aren’t Ready for What Comes Next Bitcoin is bleeding again. Down 4% in just 24 hours. Nearly 10% wiped out in a month. And yet somehow, people are still arguing about “healthy pullbacks” and “buy-the-dip opportunities.” Really? $BTC Here’s the uncomfortable truth no one wants to say out loud: Bitcoin is sitting on a cliff edge, and if it slips before year-end, things can get ugly fast. The One Level That Decides Everything Bitcoin is hovering dangerously close to the 2-Year Simple Moving Average around $82,800. This isn’t some random line traders draw for fun. This is a cycle-defining level. Break it on a monthly close, and history shows Bitcoin doesn’t politely bounce. It falls apart.$BTC People keep watching 5-minute candles like it matters. It doesn’t. What matters is the December monthly close. That candle locks in the verdict. No re-dos. No excuses. Last time Bitcoin lost this level in 2022, it didn’t “shake out weak hands.” It dumped another 51%. That’s the precedent. Ignore it if you want — the market won’t care. Long-Term Holders Are Quietly Exiting And here’s where the denial really kicks in. The so-called “strong hands” — wallets holding BTC for over 155 days — are selling. Not panicking. Not flipping. Distributing. Net outflows jumped from about 116,000 BTC to nearly 269,000 BTC in two weeks. That’s over 130% more selling pressure from the very group everyone pretends will “never sell.” When long-term holders start reducing risk before a breakdown, that’s not bullish. That’s a warning siren. The Levels Everyone Will Pretend They Didn’t See Lose the $82,800–$81,100 zone on a monthly close, and the door swings open to $73,300. That’s a clean 15% drop — and that’s just the first stop. Want relief? Bitcoin needs $88,200 just to stop the bleeding. Want to talk bullish again? Try reclaiming $94,500. Until then, every bounce is suspect and every “dip buy” is a gamble.$BTC

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$TRUTH did a clean 3x on the 10th, then weak hands panicked, price got nuked 50% in five days, and now what? Selling pressure is dead. Gone. Finished. Price has stopped bleeding, the 1H is ripping upward, and the daily is flashing an obvious breakout right in your face. This is literally the moment people regret later and ask, “Why didn’t I buy when it was obvious?” Miss it if you want.

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The Russell 2000 just hit a new all-time high, and somehow people are still pretending this means nothing for Bitcoin. Unreal. This index is a pure risk-on gauge. When small caps lead, money is chasing upside, not safety. And historically, that’s when Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins wake up. We’ve seen this before. Late 2020, Russell breaks out, BTC runs nearly 4x. Every prior Russell 2000 ATH? Bitcoin followed with its own breakout. ETH usually tags along, and then altcoins steal the show. Now the bears are screaming about outflows and weak fundamentals. No surprise. Risk rotations always look ugly before liquidity fully spreads. If perfect fundamentals mattered, markets would never move. Is it a guarantee? No. But brushing this off is classic cope. Risk is back on the table. History is flashing. And the same crowd laughing now will chase later. $BTC

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$ETH absolute clown behavior tonight. Robot flagged the short at 2,970 this morning and of course it happens while I’m sleeping. Typical. Meanwhile everyone keeps screaming “bullish above 3,000” like sell walls don’t exist. Last night’s live was clear as day: above 3,000 is a trap, not a breakout. The robot literally shows heavy sell orders stacked overhead, so no, market makers aren’t letting you in nicely. ETH still looks bearish, the larger market is weak, and we’re still hunting another short today while retail keeps buying the top and wondering why it dumps. Same movie, same ending. $BTC

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Everyone keeps asking if $ASTER can “bottom out,” so let’s stop pretending and say it plainly: this thing has been dumping since the moment it went live. Circulating market cap at 2.3B, fully diluted at 7.48B and people still asking “is this cheap?” Cheap for who? Let’s be real. If buying equals losing, then someone is definitely winning. So who’s selling? Who’s holding billions worth of tokens, and what did they actually pay for them? Zero? Close to zero? Because it sure isn’t retail making money here. And this is exactly why I don’t touch projects that launch with obscene valuations. A shiny whitepaper doesn’t justify a 100+ billion RMB valuation. Even 50 billion fully diluted is already absurd. Are we seriously expected to believe the R&D costs were that high? Come on. This isn’t innovation, it’s valuation inflation. Retail provides the exit liquidity, insiders walk away smiling, and people still wonder why price keeps bleeding. Ask better questions before asking where the bottom is.

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