ECB likely to maintain current interest rates.

A recent Reuters poll shows economists overwhelmingly expect the ECB to keep its key interest rate at 2% at its next policy meeting, and many forecast no change through at least the end of 2026 due to stable inflation and modest economic growth.

• Inflation near target supports rate stability.

Eurozone inflation has been hovering close to the ECB’s 2% target, which reduces pressure for immediate tightening or loosening of monetary policy.

• Growth forecasts may be revised up.

ECB President Christine Lagarde and other officials have indicated the bank may raise its growth projections in upcoming economic forecasts, reflecting resilience in certain economic indicators.

📊 Economic Context Behind the Decision

• Moderately positive economic data.

Economic activity in the eurozone remains steady but subdued, with growth supported by consumption and solid labour markets, even amid global trade uncertainties.

• Risks are balanced but persistent.

While inflation is generally stable, services price pressures and global trade tensions create uncertainty—making the ECB cautious about shifting from a “hold” stance.

• Markets see limited rate risk this year.

Investors currently price in low probabilities of immediate hikes or cuts, with some speculation only for 2026 moves, depending on economic

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