Market View: The Bank of Japan's Policy and Bitcoin Risk Outlook
The market may severely underestimate the potential impact of the monetary policy actions that Japan is about to take on Bitcoin. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates again on December 19. This decision seems mild, but its global implications should not be overlooked, as Japan is the world's **largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds**.
Historically, after each interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin has shown a significant pullback:
March 2024: Down approximately 23%
July 2024: Down approximately 26%
January 2025: Down approximately 31%
These cases indicate that changes in Japan's monetary policy often affect global liquidity, thereby putting pressure on high-risk assets. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's current trend is not robust, market sentiment is weakening, and participation has noticeably decreased.
The market may think, "This time is different," but historical experience shows that the movements of the Bank of Japan warrant close attention. Ignoring its crucial role in global capital flows may leave investors in a passive position during the upcoming volatility.
