The Shiba Inu token has had a tough year. The token has fallen by nearly 70% year-over-year and more than 90% from its all-time high. As interest in meme coins fades, many are now wondering if SHIB is dying slowly.
This concern grew after the CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, stated that meme coins are "dead," referring to the collapse of dominance and shrinking speculation. On the surface, Shiba Inu seems to fit this narrative. But on-chain data adds additional layers to the story.
The weakness of the meme coin is real, and Shiba Inu reflects it.
The broader meme coin market has clearly weakened. CryptoQuant data shows that meme coin dominance has dropped to its lowest levels in early 2024, indicating reduced speculative activity across altcoins.
Shiba Inu reflects this trend. The price has remained below long-term resistance, and the surges have failed to hold. Smart money wallets, which follow experienced and active traders, have gradually reduced their exposure to SHIB over the year.
This indicates that traders are not looking for short-term rebounds. Simply put, aware traders are not relying on price spikes, let alone surges.
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A recent piece of derivatives data reinforces this view. Over the past thirty days, most perpetual futures traders have reduced their exposure. Outside of the biggest headlines, leverage remains weak. This indicates that traders are cautious and not expecting rapid or explosive movement.
In simple terms, speculation has stopped. This supports the idea that meme coins are no longer leading the market as they once were. But speculation is just one side of the equation.
Hunting and holders continue to add as coins leave exchanges.
Despite the weak price action, the long-term behavior tells a different story.
The number of Shiba Inu holders, tracking the number of wallets holding SHIB, has continued to rise throughout the year. It started at around 1.46 million and grew to about 1.54 million. The growth has not been smooth, but the trend remains positive, even as prices have dipped sharply.
Whale data is more eye-catching.
Over the past year, large holders have increased their SHIB balances by about 249%, according to the previously shared image. Giant whale balances have risen by about 28.5%. Meanwhile, exchange balances, which show the number of tokens on trading platforms, have decreased by nearly 22%. A lack of coins on exchanges usually means less immediate selling pressure.
This trend has accelerated recently. Over the past thirty days alone, whale balances have increased by more than 61%, while most outflows from exchanges occurred during the same period.
This does not seem like panic or abandonment. It looks like slow accumulation.
However, it is important to note that derivatives traders are not participating in the topic. Outside of the headlines, leverage positioning remains calm. Whales are showing early but are not aggressive.
The price structure of Shiba Inu remains weak, but there is a reversal setup appearing.
Price movement in SHIB remains fragile, but it is not hopeless.
On the three-day chart, Shiba Inu is trading within a long-term descending wedge, a pattern that often turns bullish if the price breaks upward. Recently, a key signal has emerged.
Between December 3 and December 12, Shiba Inu's price recorded a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, recorded a higher low. This bullish divergence suggests weakening selling pressure, increasing the likelihood of a trend reversal.
Key levels are now more important than the narrative.
The first resistance is around $0.0000092. A clean break above this level would represent a breakout from the upper trend line that has held the price since September. If confirmed, the next resistance areas are around $0.000010, $0.000011, and $0.000014, which align with the last major swing high. Please note that breaking the level after $0.0000092 could completely invalidate claims of a 'dead coin'.
As for the downside, the structure has weakened to below $0.0000075. Continued movement below this level will invalidate the reversal setup and reopen downside risks in the market.
Shiba Inu is not dead, but it is not strong either. Speculation has disappeared, and traders remain cautious, with quick gains unlikely. However, the rising number of holders, dense whale accumulation, and declining exchange balances suggest that the chain has not been neglected yet.
If the altcoin cycle returns, Shiba Inu still has a way to revive. For now, it remains in survival mode, waiting for stronger confirmation.
