The fluctuations of privacy coins have always been a duet of 'regulatory hints + technical foundation'—today's 4-hour K-line for ZEC has brought this act to the forefront.
This morning, when I opened the market, ZEC nudged up against the support at 405, peaking at 409 before being pushed back down to around 408, oscillating slightly. The amplitude was just enough for a point, looking like a classic case of 'dragging one's feet.' But seasoned fans know that this seemingly 'quiet' market often hides the 'dark lines' within the circle—today the SEC invited Zcash founder Zooko to Washington for a roundtable discussion, precisely about 'how to regulate privacy coins.' This matter, to put it mildly, is a policy reveal; to put it more broadly, it’s a precursor to issuing ZEC an 'entry ticket for compliance.'
Look at that pile of indicators on the chart: MACD green bars shrink like toothpicks, DIF and DEA are still lying below the zero axis, but the strength of the 'death cross turning' has weakened; RSI rebounded after touching the 30 oversold line, and KDJ's three lines are sticking together around 25 — this is not a signal of 'going down,' but a clear sign that 'bears can't push down anymore.' Just like last month when Arkham said they could unveil ZEC's anonymous trading, many shouted 'big zero coin is going to die,' but what happened? The price fell from 750 to 400 and then stopped, and institutions like Cypherpunk took the opportunity to increase their positions; now that pullback looks like a 'golden pit.' Today's trend follows the same logic as 'bad news hitting the bottom.'
Returning to today's trading details: 24-hour trading volume just over 1 billion, turnover rate just over 15%, but net inflow of 550,000 USDT — this indicates that 'the ones smashing the price are offloading their remaining stock, and the ones picking it up are secretly building positions.' Don't think 'this little net inflow doesn't count for anything.' Last year, when Grayscale applied for the BTC ETF, it was also this kind of 'small funds quietly laying out' rhythm, which exploded threefold once the news landed. Now ZEC's dynamic fee proposal just passed community voting, and the institutional wallet Zashi updated its Tor privacy tool, combined with the SEC's 'active dialogue,' means that from the three dimensions of technology, ecology, and policy, they are all 'filling gaps.' The current fluctuations essentially mean 'chips are being moved from retail hands to institutional pockets.'
I have an old example here: In 2023, Monero was delisted from exchanges during a period of tight regulatory scrutiny, and the price first plummeted by 20%, then rebounded to new highs thanks to the rigid demand for privacy. Today, ZEC's situation is better — it hasn't been delisted, but rather invited by regulators to 'discuss the rules.' This is like a player in a casino being called by the boss to 'negotiate the split'; the subsequent bonuses will only increase.
The key now is 'can you hold on?': Support level looks at 405; if it breaks, wait for the strong support at 398 (but the probability is very low); resistance level looks at 415 first; if it breaks through, it will directly touch the previous high of 420. Don't focus on the hourly fluctuations; you have to think: once the SEC meeting minutes come out and the dynamic fee model goes live, will this ZEC slightly above 400 suddenly become 'the hotcake that institutions are scrambling for' like last year's SOL?
To be honest, after so many years in the cryptocurrency circle, what I benefit most from is the market of 'bad news fully digested + technical bottoming' — just like when hunting, you see the prey shaking its tail in the grass; you just need to steady your gun and wait for it to show its head. Today's 'bottom polishing' of ZEC is not about patience; it's about whether the subsequent meat is fat enough.
— By the way, I will be watching the SEC meeting live tomorrow morning. Do you want me to sync and pull some 'information from under the table' for you?
Twelve years in finance, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the cryptocurrency circle: Insight into the market, steady progress, focusing on how to steadily increase value under the guidance of the Heavenly Master’s teachings. In investment, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a big taboo in the cryptocurrency world!
