#日本加息已成定局 Will the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike be a done deal? 98% probability confirmed!

The market has almost finalized the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December! According to Polymarket data on December 14, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December surged to 98%, leaving only a 2% chance that rates will remain unchanged. This wave of expectations has been fully realized, and the final rate decision will be announced on December 19.

It is important to note that Japan has long been adhering to an ultra-loose monetary policy, and now suddenly facing strong expectations of a rate hike, driven by multiple factors such as inflation continuously exceeding the 2% target and a weakening yen. If the 25 basis point rate hike materializes, it would mark a critical step in the Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy, potentially ending the era of long-term negative interest rates.

The market has already started to react to these expectations, with the yen, Japanese stocks, and the bond market all responding in advance. Will this rate hike actually materialize as expected? What kind of impact will it have on the global financial market? Let's discuss in the comments whether you think the Bank of Japan will truly take action this time!