HBAR is running out of time. The token has fallen nearly 2% in the last 24 hours and close to 10% for the week. In the process, the HBAR price has broken several short-term support levels and is now hovering around $0.12.

This level is critical. HBAR is barely 1% above a breaking level that could pull the price down towards $0.10. This fall would correspond to a decline of 12% to 13% from current levels. But one bullish signal still keeps the structure together. If that falls away, the decline could accelerate.

Large players are retreating and weakening the setup

The main source of pressure comes from how large HBAR holders behave.

This is visible through the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether large money is entering or exiting an asset by combining price movements with trading volume. When CMF is above zero, large buyers are active. When it falls below zero, distribution occurs.

For HBAR, CMF has deteriorated significantly. Since December 7th, CMF has fallen by over 400% and moved deep into negative territory. Previous falls still resulted in CMF staying positive, meaning buyers absorbed the selling pressure. This time, that support is gone.

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There is also a clear bearish divergence. Between October 10th and December 14th, the HBAR price established higher lows, while CMF created lower lows. This shows that the recent price stability has not been supported by strong demand from large players.

Simply put, the price attempted to stay up while large money quietly sold out. This imbalance makes the HBAR price vulnerable.

One bullish indicator is still holding the support level

Despite weak developments among the largest players, one momentum indicator still shows a bullish signal.

The indicator is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the strength and speed of recent price movements. It helps to identify when selling pressure may be exhausted. Values near 30 typically indicate oversold conditions.

On HBAR's daily chart, RSI has formed a bullish divergence. Between November 21st and December 14th, the HBAR price established a lower low, while RSI created a higher low. This is a classic bullish divergence, often indicating a trend reversal.

P.S. The HBAR price has a clear downward trend and has fallen by over 48% in the last 3 months.

This tells us that sellers are still pushing prices lower, but with increasingly weaker strength. The fall continues, but the momentum from the sellers is weakening. Currently, this RSI divergence is the only bullish scenario left for HBAR.

The HBAR price is falling or reversing the trend

Price development determines the outcome. HBAR is currently trading below a descending trendline that has stopped all upward movements in recent weeks. At the same time, the price is at a Fibonacci support level around $0.12. This line forms the bottom of the descending triangle pattern, completed by the falling trendline.

This zone is the last line of defense.

If $0.12 is clearly broken, the next important support level is near $0.10. This will confirm a decline of 12% to 13% and extend the bearish trend.

To stabilize, the HBAR price must reclaim $0.13. This level corresponds with an important Fibonacci retracement area and will signal that buyers are returning.

A stronger reversal will only come above $0.13. Then the price will return above the trendline and the structure will change from bearish to neutral.