MicroStrategy's latest Bitcoin purchase has quickly come under scrutiny. Just one day after the company announced a large purchase, Bitcoin plummeted.
On December 14, MicroStrategy announced that they had purchased 10,645 BTC for approximately $980.3 million, at an average price of $92,098 per coin. At that time, Bitcoin was trading near local peak levels.
A poorly timed purchase, at least in the short term
The timing was unfortunate. Just one day after the company's reported purchase, Bitcoin fell to the $85,000 level and briefly dipped below it. As of now, BTC is still below $80,000.
Bitcoin's drop occurred simultaneously with a broader macro-driven sell-off, driven by fears of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, liquidations, and risk-adjustments by market makers. MicroStrategy's purchases occurred just before this drop.
When Bitcoin fell, MicroStrategy's stock plummeted. In the last five trading days, the stock has fallen over 25%, significantly weaker than the Bitcoin price.
Even though the stock has recovered a bit today, it still remains far below the levels before the purchase was announced.
Now MicroStrategy owns 671 268 BTC, purchased for about $50.33 billion with an average price of $74,972 per coin.
In the long term, the company still has significant gains.
But in the short term, the impression also plays a role. With Bitcoin near $85,000, the latest purchase is already in the red on paper.
MicroStrategy's mNAV is currently around 1.11, implying that the stock is trading about 11% above the value of the company's Bitcoin holdings. That premium has quickly shrunk as the Bitcoin price fell and stock investors reassessed the risk.
Investors are not questioning MicroStrategy's Bitcoin faith. They are questioning the timing and risk management.
The macro risk that triggered Bitcoin's drop was well signaled. The market had warned of a possible interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan and the risks of yen carry trade for several weeks.
Bitcoin has previously fallen sharply around BOJ tightening. This time it was similar.
Critics argue that MicroStrategy did not wait for macro clarification. The company entered with aggressive buying near resistance, just as global liquidity tightened.
Was it really a mistake
It depends on the time perspective.
From a trading perspective, the purchase was poorly timed. Bitcoin fell immediately afterwards, and the stock suffered greater losses due to leverage, market sentiment, and falling NAV premium.
From a strategic perspective, MicroStrategy has never tried to hit bottoms. The company has focused on accumulating over time, not optimizing price in the short term.
CEO Michael Saylor has argued several times that owning more Bitcoin is more important than buying at perfect timing.
The real risk is not the purchase itself. It is what happens next.
If Bitcoin stabilizes and macro pressure eases, MicroStrategy's latest purchase will disappear into the company's long-term cost basis. If Bitcoin continues to fall, however, the decision will remain a topic of discussion for critics.
MicroStrategy may not have made the worst Bitcoin purchase in 2025. But it could turn out to be the most uncomfortable.
