$BTC The four-year cycle of bitcoin moves from halving to politics, according to a researcher
In the midst of a heated debate about bitcoin's four-year cycle, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, shared his view that the cycle remains intact, but the forces that determine it have shifted from halving events to politics and liquidity.
Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Mr. Thielen stated that claims the four-year cycle is "broken" do not take the overall situation into account. According to him, the cycle still exists, but it is no longer primarily driven by the scheduled reduction of the bitcoin supply. Instead, it is increasingly influenced by the timing of U.S. elections, central bank policies, and capital flows into risk assets.
Mr. Thielen highlighted historical market peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. According to him, these peaks correspond more closely to U.S. presidential election cycles and general political uncertainty than to bitcoin's halving dates, which occurred at different times of the year.
"There is uncertainty regarding the loss of many seats by the incumbent party. I also think there is now a strong likelihood that Trump will lose or that the Republicans will lose many seats in the House of Representatives, and as a result, he may no longer be able to pass much of his agenda," said Mr. Thielen.
