$ETH The data relating to derivatives confirms that leverage is at the origin of the collapse of prices
The activity of derivatives explains the rapidity of the recent fall. The volume of transactions increased by nearly 60%, while open interest fell by nearly 5%, a classic sign of a forced reduction in risks rather than a new aggressive short positioning. Operators were active, but they were reducing their exposure instead of strengthening it.
The ratios between long and short positions remain biased in favor of long positions on the main stock exchanges, particularly among the largest traders. This imbalance has exposed the market. Over the last 24 hours, long position liquidations have exceeded 200 million dollars, confirming that the retreat was caused by the elimination of leverage rather than by pressure from bears on prices.
This dynamic partly explains why the decline has been sharp yet controlled. Once the excess leverage was eliminated, the intensity of selling eased and prices stabilized.
Outflows in cash maintain pressure beneath the surface
Cash flows add another layer of caution. Ethereum has recorded persistent net outflows from cash markets, with the latest data showing more than 50 million dollars in net withdrawals. These outflows have accompanied most attempts at recovery since September, indicating that the largest holders continue to distribute into strength.
The lack of sustained inflows into cash markets suggests that long-term accumulation has not yet resumed. Until this changes, the burden of proof remains on the bulls, and recoveries are likely to face upstream selling pressure.
