Every time loud predictions about "X10" don't come true, investors ask: is it a mistake in analysis or manipulation? The answer is complex, as both professionals and outright fraudsters operate in the crypto market.
📉 Why do even HONEST analysts make mistakes?
Uncontrollable Factors (Geopolitics/Regulation): No model can predict a sudden ban on crypto in one of the countries or a change in the Fed's rate.
Emotional Market (FUD/FOMO): The decisions of millions of traders driven by fear or greed will always outweigh any technical analysis.
The "Black Swan" effect: Unpredictable, rare events (such as the hacking of a major exchange or the collapse of an ecosystem) instantly invalidate all previous forecasts.
🐍 Be careful: "Forecasters" with Conflicts of Interest
The biggest risk is those who present manipulation as analysis. Pay attention to these signs:
Pump and Dump: An "analyst" buys an asset, loudly promotes it, waits for newcomers to drive up the price, and then sells their share, leaving others with a devalued asset.
Paid "Shilling": The guru receives money from developers of dubious projects for a guaranteed positive forecast, not disclosing that this is advertising. The goal is to sell you a coin, not to share knowledge.
Profit Guarantee: If someone promises "100% growth" or "it's inevitable" and does not mention risks, it's a red flag.
🛡️ How to protect your capital:
Trust in the crypto market should be minimal.
Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research): Study the White Paper, the team, and the actual utility of the asset yourself.
Look for criticism: If an expert only talks about the positives, find someone who discusses the negatives and risks.
Check the source of income: If an "analyst" earns from advertising rather than quality analysis, their forecasts are not worth your attention.
Remember: In crypto, you are your own bank and your own analyst.
