Recently, the strong performance of gold and the historic high of silver have sparked discussions in the market about 'macro turn', 'physical tightness', and 'capital movement eastward'. Breaking down the verifiable information, the core signals mainly come from three layers: macro pricing, silver supply and demand, and the emphasis on custody and jurisdiction diversification.


1) Gold and silver rising together: the market is pricing in looser financial conditions.


The underlying drivers of the rise in gold and silver are: interest rate cuts/expectations of interest rate cuts pushing the US dollar and real interest rates lower, thereby enhancing the relative attractiveness of precious metals.
The corresponding signal is:

  1. The market is more inclined to price in 'looser financial conditions/real interest rates lower' for the near future.

  2. Capital is not purely risk-on; the strengthening of precious metals often also means that hedging demand is rising (inflation, geopolitical, financial volatility, etc.).


2) Silver is more aggressive: beyond safe-haven, there is also 'industrial attributes + supply and demand.'


The price elasticity of silver is usually greater than that of gold: it is influenced by macro factors as well as industrial demand, inventory, and supply constraints. A significant pullback after hitting a new high is not uncommon, indicating stronger volatility attributes.
The corresponding signal is:

  1. Capital may be betting on the narrative of 'physical tightness/supply-demand gap,' not just safe-haven sentiment.

  2. Market fluctuations are more likely to exhibit sharp rises and falls, requiring stricter tolerance for drawdowns in position management.


3) 'Morgan moved the vault to Singapore': a more prudent understanding is 'the precious metals hub is shifting east, and custody jurisdictions are diversifying.'


Regarding the claim that 'JPMorgan moved the vault/team to Singapore,' there are many versions on social media, which can easily be exaggerated.
The verifiable fact is: JPMorgan publicly announced in 2010 the establishment of a precious metal vault/storage facility in Singapore, with reasons including closer proximity to Asian clients, geographically diversified storage locations, and Singapore's infrastructure advantages as a regional commodity and storage hub.
The corresponding signal is:

  1. The focus of precious metal storage, delivery, and institutional services continues to shift towards Asia (especially Singapore).

  2. Large capital places greater emphasis on 'the diversification of custody for the same asset in different jurisdictions' as part of managing geopolitical and financial system risks.


4) Taken together: capital is more concerned with 'physical and custody safety,' not just paper trading.


When the discussions of 'gold and silver strengthening' and 'diversification of custody locations/jurisdictions' heat up simultaneously, a stronger signal is often:

  1. Hedging demand is on the rise;

  2. Preferences for holding methods are changing: more attention is being paid to whether delivery can be made, where to store, and who will manage it.

5) A simple tracking framework

  1. Interest rates and the U.S. dollar: the path of interest rate cuts and changes in real interest rates.

  2. Silver volatility: the extent of pullbacks after hitting new highs and transaction structure (to determine if entering an acceleration phase).

  3. Physical and delivery chains: publicly available data on exchange inventories, ETF subscriptions and redemptions, storage, and logistics (to verify if 'physical tightness' is real).

If in the next 6–12 months, capital continues to place 'precious metal storage/delivery/custody' more in Asia (e.g., Singapore), will this mean that the anchor point for global risk pricing is gradually shifting from 'U.S. dollar interest rates' to 'the safety and liquidity of deliverable physical assets'? 🤔

#黄金