12.15 Zhao Zhao: After a strong rise, gold is wary of a pullback

The market will not always provide just one answer; understanding the importance of staying clear-headed at high levels is the greatest respect for capital.

From the news perspective, today's market has fully priced in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. After the bullish sentiment was released in advance, the marginal returns for continuing to chase longs in the short term have clearly decreased; at the same time, the dollar index has stabilized at a low level, and statements from some officials are relatively neutral, causing gold's upward momentum to begin to slow down, creating a demand for technical correction at high levels. The news no longer supports further long positions but rather paves the way for a high-level pullback.

The rate cut's confirmation + hawkish speeches + dollar stability represent a typical "excessive bullish environment".

Returning to the market, after a rapid pullback from a new high of around 4350 in an hourly timeframe, a clear long upper shadow formed, with short-term momentum diverging, and prices falling back into the previous strong breakout zone, indicating that bulls are beginning to take profits; the current high point has not been able to sustain a breakthrough with increased volume, and the short-term structure is leaning more towards high-level oscillation and a reversal.

The trading strategy is clear: do not chase longs, rely on high levels to layout short positions, and anticipate a corrective pullback.

Suggestion:

Around 4310-4320, target first at 4290-4280, further look down to 4265, and 4255 range.

(Strategies are time-sensitive, maintain proper protection, and are for reference only.) #美联储降息 #加密市场反弹 #现货黄金创历史新高