【Financial Breakfast | December 15, 2025】
1. Last Friday, concerns about AI intensified, weighing down the US stock market, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 2% and the S&P dropping over 1%. Overall, the week showed a downward trend, and the Dow fell from its record high, although it still rose over 1% for the week, marking three consecutive weeks of gains.
2. China added 2.49 trillion yuan in social financing in November, with new RMB loans of 390 billion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread widening.
3. He lf: In 2026, we must be vigilant against 'explosive risks'.
4. Han Wenxiu: Next year, policies will be implemented based on changes in the situation to promote synchronized growth in residents' income and economic growth, expanding exports while also increasing imports.
5. Multiple Chinese ministries responded to the Central Economic Work Conference, with the central bank: flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions; the National Development and Reform Commission: taking practical and innovative measures to boost consumption, comprehensively rectifying 'involution' competition and cultivating new growth drivers; the Ministry of Commerce and two other departments: strengthening coordination between commerce and finance to more vigorously boost consumption; the Ministry of Finance: effectively utilizing various government bond funds, issuing ultra-long special government bonds, and promoting investment stabilization.
6. Vanke's '22 Vanke MTN004' three proposals for bond extension have not been approved, with a grace period of 5 working days remaining; Securities Times: It cannot be determined that the notes are in 'default', and Vanke may actively promote negotiations during the grace period.
7. It is reported that Moutai will soon launch a control policy, with the price of Feitian Moutai liquor jumping four times in one day on Saturday, reaching 1580 yuan/bottle.
8. Yushu launches humanoid robot on the App Store, with complex actions being 'ready to use immediately'.
9. Trump: Prefers to have Walsh or Hassett as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, hoping for an interest rate of 1% or lower in a year, claiming he should play a role in discussions with the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates.
10. JPMorgan CEO Dimon reportedly supports Walsh, warning that Hassett's appointment would harm the independence of the Federal Reserve; after Dimon's support, the market's probability of Walsh's appointment surged by 24 percentage points. Hassett: Hopes that whoever is appointed, whether Walsh or himself, will communicate with Trump, who can provide suggestions to the Fed but has no power to dictate its actions.
11. 'New Federal Reserve News Agency': Federal Reserve officials debate whether interest rate cuts harm inflation, with divergences remaining among next year's voting members on policy. The Philadelphia Fed President among next year's voting members states that inflation is no longer the biggest enemy, and the risks of employment downturn are more concerning. The Chicago Fed President explains opposition to interest rate cuts: we should wait for more inflation data. The Kansas City Fed President explains opposition to interest rate cuts: inflation is too high.
12. AI concerns exacerbate the situation, with Oracle reportedly delaying the completion of some data centers until 2028, and Oracle's CDS rising to the highest level since 2009; Oracle denies the news, stating that there have been no delays in all contracted data centers; securities documents reveal that Oracle has reached a $150 billion data center lease agreement within three months as of November.
13. The latest peace proposal draft has been exposed: Ukraine plans to join the EU as early as 2027; Zelensky: The U.S. demands that Ukraine unilaterally withdraw troops and establish a 'free economic zone' are unfair; a U.S. envoy stated that the U.S.-Ukraine Berlin talks have made 'significant progress', with both sides continuing discussions on the 15th.
14. Reminder: Monthly economic data such as China's industrial added value above designated size year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year for November.
