Today, Ethereum is undergoing such a high-pressure test.
【Market Core Context: Bulls and Bears are fiercely battling at a critical position】
Friends, take a look at this 4-hour chart. ETH/USDT's latest candle closed around 2751, slightly down 0.49%. It seems calm on the surface, but beneath this calm water lies a surging undercurrent. Several key points on the chart are clearly marked: the high point of 3446 feels like an unattainable dream, while the previous low of 2620 is the bottom line that the bulls must defend. The current price is 'grinding the bottom' around 2750, a very delicate position—it's both the support of a small platform from earlier and the short-term psychological defense line of the market.


On the technical indicators, there is a lot of information:
Fund flow: showing -10.1 million, this negative sign is very eye-catching, indicating that large funds are still net outflowing, and the market's 'bloodletting' effect has not yet ended.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): three values (34.85, 33.61, 36.00) are all hovering on the edge of the weak zone between 30-40. It's like a person is already gasping for breath but hasn't completely collapsed; a rebound could happen at any time, but a 'strong heart needle' is needed.


MACD: The fast and slow lines are below the zero axis, and the histogram is -91.82, clearly a bearish pattern. But the DEA line (-22.09) shows signs of flattening, indicating that the downward momentum may be slowing, entering a period of digestion of the downward momentum.
Trading volume: Compared to the average volume (MA5, MA10), it is shrinking, indicating a period of reduced volatility. This shows that at the current position, panic selling is not much, but the strength of active buying is also hesitant; everyone is waiting for a clear signal.


Just watching the line is dead; combined with today's news, this chart comes alive. The core negative news from last weekend to today is what I summarized last time — the Fed's 'hawkish rate cut' and the global liquidity tightening expectations triggered by the potential shift of the Bank of Japan. This knife hanging over all risk assets makes it difficult for Ethereum to stand out. The leading market BTC has fallen below 88000, and ETH is hard to go against the trend.


However, hidden opportunities lie within the crisis. This morning's latest news, asset management giant BlackRock has officially submitted an ETF application for 'staking Ethereum trust' to the SEC. What does this mean? It means that traditional capital giants are not only coveting Bitcoin but are also actively laying out Ethereum's 'interest-bearing' attributes. Although this cannot immediately reverse the short-term trend, it is an extremely strong signal of long-term value endorsement. At the same time, the SEC's conclusion of the investigation on Ondo without charges has also released warmth towards Ethereum's core narrative directions like DeFi/RWA.


My view is: short-term look at macro conditions, medium-term look at ecological internal strength, long-term look at institutional entry.
Short-term (next few days): ETH will most likely continue to follow BTC to test the support below. The key is whether 2620 can hold. If it breaks down with volume, the next psychological level may have to look for support around 2500. However, I personally believe that the probability of breaking down directly from the current position is decreasing; it is more likely to create a shock box in the range of 2620-2850, using time to digest macro negatives and previous gains.


Case and logic: Everyone sees that although Fund flow is overall outflowing, careful observation of the internal data shows that since the end of November, there have been giant whales quietly using BTC to exchange for ETH (on-chain data can be checked). This operation is very interesting; they are not leaving the market but rebalancing their assets. This confirms one of my viewpoints: in a bear market or a sideways market, assets with actual returns (like staking) and a strong application ecosystem (like DeFi, Layer2) will have stronger anti-drop characteristics and future elasticity. Just like the last cycle, ETH before DeFi Summer also experienced a long bottoming process, but the more solid the foundation was laid, the more explosive the later growth became.


So, right now at this position, for short-term players, the winds are high and the waves are rough; quick entry and exit are needed with strict stop-losses. But for long-term holders, every panic near key support levels may be a good opportunity to accumulate in batches. The market always gives birth to opportunities in despair. I want to ask everyone: If ETH really drops to 2620 or even lower, will you choose to panic sell, or will you see it as an opportunity to 'pick up chips at a discount'? Feel free to discuss your strategies in the comments. Remember, investing is not just about looking at K-lines; it's also a game of cognition and mindset.@华尔街老陈 My chat room at the top wants to keep up with the layout. Chat room扣1

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