Bitcoin is currently in a fierce battle within a critical price range. As of December 15, 2025, the BTC price hovers around $89,331, and market sentiment is complex.

The technical indicators show conflicting signals. The 1-hour RSI is at 51.24, in the neutral zone, while the MACD histogram at +60 indicates short-term bullish momentum, and the price is above EMA12 ($88,910). However, the 4-hour chart presents a different picture: the RSI has dropped to 43.17, nearing the oversold territory, and the MACD histogram at -167 shows bearish divergence, with the price falling below EMA12 ($89,571) and EMA26 ($90,161).

There are hidden risks in the futures market. The total open interest in BTC has reached $62.2 billion, up 3.45% in the last 24 hours, but the funding rate on Binance at -0.00094% indicates bearish dominance. The liquidation data over the past 24 hours is even more severe: a total of $108 million has been liquidated, with long positions losing $93 million and shorts only $15 million, indicating that downward pressure is forcing many leveraged long positions to exit.

There are divergences on social media. Analysts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat discuss the possibility of BTC breaking through the resistance levels of $93,000 to $94,000, with long-term forecasts even pointing to a target of $180,000 by January 2026, attempting to break the four-year cycle pattern. However, some traders warn of a potential pullback to the support levels of $88,000 to $89,000, with the current price range described as a "stablecoin-like consolidation."

Macro risks cannot be ignored. The news of the Bank of Japan potentially raising interest rates on December 19 has raised market concerns. Historical data shows that interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have previously led to Bitcoin drops of 23%-31%. Given Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt, any policy changes could trigger a chain reaction in global capital flows, and traders believe this risk is underestimated by the market.

Currently, BTC is under the triple pressure of technical divergence, fragile futures leverage, and pending macro events, and short-term volatility is expected to continue to amplify.