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小猪天上飞-Piglet

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High-Frequency Trader
4.8 Years
我只是个臭开撸毛工作室的,所发文章都是个人分析感受,所有分析不构成投资建议,只做参考。
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Many people ask me if Aster has been sold; the current price does not reach my valuation, so I must be holding on. Reasons for keeping Aster: 1. Differences in market environment October 2024 (HYPE): Early stage of a bull market, strong demand for contracts September 2025 (Aster): The market is relatively rational, establishing trust in spot trading is more important 2. Different competitive landscape HYPE advantage: At that time, competition in contract DEX was low, and technology was leading Aster challenge: Facing strong competitors like the mature Hyperliquid, it needs to establish a user base first 3. Token distribution strategy Aster airdrops 8.8% of the supply, preventing large-scale sell-offs Withdrawal lock ensures early liquidity is controllable Strategy assessment Aster is not a simple replication of HYPE, but a reverse strategy based on different market environments: Same goals: Control liquidity, gain price discovery dominance, build platform moats Different paths: Spot first vs contract first Adaptability: Rational choices based on the current market environment and competitive landscape Next step predictions Short term (2-4 weeks) More second-tier CEX spot trading will go live Completion of APX token swaps on first-tier exchanges like Binance Liquidity gradually improving but still relatively low Medium term (1-3 months) Derivatives trading will be launched, prioritized on the Aster platform Mainstream CEXs start to pay attention to ASTER contract demand Forming positive competition with HYPE Long-term risks If the spot phase cannot establish a sufficient user base, subsequent derivatives promotion will face difficulties Dispersed liquidity may affect trading experience, less effective than HYPE's concentrated strategy Aster has chosen a more conservative but possibly more suitable strategy for the current environment, hoping for its success!#空投大毛
Many people ask me if Aster has been sold; the current price does not reach my valuation, so I must be holding on.
Reasons for keeping Aster:
1. Differences in market environment
October 2024 (HYPE): Early stage of a bull market, strong demand for contracts
September 2025 (Aster): The market is relatively rational, establishing trust in spot trading is more important
2. Different competitive landscape
HYPE advantage: At that time, competition in contract DEX was low, and technology was leading
Aster challenge: Facing strong competitors like the mature Hyperliquid, it needs to establish a user base first
3. Token distribution strategy
Aster airdrops 8.8% of the supply, preventing large-scale sell-offs
Withdrawal lock ensures early liquidity is controllable
Strategy assessment
Aster is not a simple replication of HYPE, but a reverse strategy based on different market environments:
Same goals: Control liquidity, gain price discovery dominance, build platform moats
Different paths: Spot first vs contract first
Adaptability: Rational choices based on the current market environment and competitive landscape
Next step predictions
Short term (2-4 weeks)
More second-tier CEX spot trading will go live
Completion of APX token swaps on first-tier exchanges like Binance
Liquidity gradually improving but still relatively low
Medium term (1-3 months)
Derivatives trading will be launched, prioritized on the Aster platform
Mainstream CEXs start to pay attention to ASTER contract demand
Forming positive competition with HYPE
Long-term risks
If the spot phase cannot establish a sufficient user base, subsequent derivatives promotion will face difficulties
Dispersed liquidity may affect trading experience, less effective than HYPE's concentrated strategy
Aster has chosen a more conservative but possibly more suitable strategy for the current environment, hoping for its success!#空投大毛
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There are still projects like Tempo that choose to redo an L1. On the surface, it is because they want technological autonomy, valuation independence, and narrative clarity, but these are not the fundamental reasons. The core external factor is only one: Ethereum, as the underlying settlement layer, has not yet fully realized the unification of liquidity. As long as liquidity remains dispersed between L2s, and as long as there is still an "island effect" between chains, new L1s have the opportunity to enter the market in the name of "unified assets, unified experience"—even if this opportunity window is continually shrinking. Conversely, once Ethereum truly addresses this: Cross-L2 liquidity becomes as smooth as if it were on the same chain. Settlement and security continue to maintain an irreplaceable cost advantage. L1 costs drop to a level sufficient to support almost all high-value activities. Then the entire industry's landscape will undergo a dramatic reversal— The narrative of new L1s will evaporate instantly because they will no longer have the threshold of network effects, nor the cost-performance advantage of security, and there will be no reason for user migration. Essentially, the reason some are still willing to create new L1s today is not that they are "more advanced" than Ethereum, but because Ethereum's network effects, especially in terms of liquidity, have not yet reached a level of "unassailable" strength. Therefore, Ethereum's most crucial step beyond technical routes in the future is: How to weave the liquidity, ordering, and settlement of L1 with all L2s into a unified "Ethereum super network." As long as this is accomplished, it will not only be the strongest defense but also the strongest offense for the entire industry— At that time, new L1s will no longer be competitors, but will become an existence questioning "why should they still exist?"
There are still projects like Tempo that choose to redo an L1. On the surface, it is because they want technological autonomy, valuation independence, and narrative clarity, but these are not the fundamental reasons. The core external factor is only one: Ethereum, as the underlying settlement layer, has not yet fully realized the unification of liquidity.
As long as liquidity remains dispersed between L2s, and as long as there is still an "island effect" between chains, new L1s have the opportunity to enter the market in the name of "unified assets, unified experience"—even if this opportunity window is continually shrinking.
Conversely, once Ethereum truly addresses this:
Cross-L2 liquidity becomes as smooth as if it were on the same chain.
Settlement and security continue to maintain an irreplaceable cost advantage.
L1 costs drop to a level sufficient to support almost all high-value activities.
Then the entire industry's landscape will undergo a dramatic reversal—
The narrative of new L1s will evaporate instantly because they will no longer have the threshold of network effects, nor the cost-performance advantage of security, and there will be no reason for user migration.
Essentially, the reason some are still willing to create new L1s today is not that they are "more advanced" than Ethereum, but because Ethereum's network effects, especially in terms of liquidity, have not yet reached a level of "unassailable" strength.
Therefore, Ethereum's most crucial step beyond technical routes in the future is:
How to weave the liquidity, ordering, and settlement of L1 with all L2s into a unified "Ethereum super network."
As long as this is accomplished, it will not only be the strongest defense but also the strongest offense for the entire industry—
At that time, new L1s will no longer be competitors, but will become an existence questioning "why should they still exist?"
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$FHE Recently, this trend indeed has something going on. On December 7, the current price was $0.016, and today it directly surged to $0.058, increasing 2.6 times in five days. Let's talk about the data, without getting into fluff. It started on December 7, and as of today, the increase is +262%. The 24-hour trading volume is $34.7M, which supports the price. In the Binance futures market, on December 7, $FHE topped the increase rankings with a single day increase of +130%, rubbing a bunch of altcoins into the ground. It has consistently appeared in the top three increases on Binance in recent days, and this exposure is valuable. The technical aspect is also in alignment. All moving averages are in a complete bullish arrangement at the daily level, EMA12 just crossed above EMA26 on December 9, and the MACD histogram continues to strengthen. The 4-hour RSI is 66.81, not yet in extreme overbought territory, leaving room for further upward movement. The contract open interest surged +58% in 24 hours, reaching $19.87M, indicating new funds are entering the market, not just existing money speculating. More critically, the narrative is fermenting. Mind Network officially announced on December 10 the expansion to Solana, bringing FHE encryption capabilities to AI agents. This timing is precise - AI Agents are currently the hottest direction in the Solana ecosystem, and Pippin, as the largest AI community on Solana, directly interfaces with their ecosystem. Cross-chain privacy execution, stealth addresses, A2A transactions; if these functions are truly implemented, the technological moat will be deep enough. Looking at institutional endorsements. Binance Labs seed round investment, Chainlink BUILD program's first batch of projects, two grants from the Ethereum Foundation, and $13.25M financing is not a small amount. On December 16, Chainlink Rewards Season 1 will open for claims, and this airdrop can add more fuel to the community. KuCoin just launched futures on December 8, with Bitget and Binance also having position support, liquidity is rapidly improving. Why dare to get on board? The direction of FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) is inherently sound - the combination of AI and privacy computing is a necessity, and Mind Network is a leading project in this track. Now at a price of $0.058, compared to the historical high of $0.073 in September, there is still room for growth, and this time the volume is significantly stronger than last time. In the short term, the resistance level is $0.065; after breaking through, it will head straight for $0.073; in the medium term, if the Solana ecosystem rises, the FDV of $56 million (at current prices) is still considered undervalued among similar projects. I also make the risks clear: the daily RSI of 78 is indeed overheated, and there is a considerable probability of a short-term pullback to the support level of $0.05. Below $0.05, there is an $1.32M long liquidation pressure, and a break could lead to a cascade. But as long as there are substantial advancements in Solana's expansion, a pullback will be an opportunity to accumulate more. #FHE
$FHE Recently, this trend indeed has something going on. On December 7, the current price was $0.016, and today it directly surged to $0.058, increasing 2.6 times in five days.
Let's talk about the data, without getting into fluff. It started on December 7, and as of today, the increase is +262%. The 24-hour trading volume is $34.7M, which supports the price. In the Binance futures market, on December 7, $FHE topped the increase rankings with a single day increase of +130%, rubbing a bunch of altcoins into the ground. It has consistently appeared in the top three increases on Binance in recent days, and this exposure is valuable.
The technical aspect is also in alignment. All moving averages are in a complete bullish arrangement at the daily level, EMA12 just crossed above EMA26 on December 9, and the MACD histogram continues to strengthen. The 4-hour RSI is 66.81, not yet in extreme overbought territory, leaving room for further upward movement. The contract open interest surged +58% in 24 hours, reaching $19.87M, indicating new funds are entering the market, not just existing money speculating.
More critically, the narrative is fermenting. Mind Network officially announced on December 10 the expansion to Solana, bringing FHE encryption capabilities to AI agents. This timing is precise - AI Agents are currently the hottest direction in the Solana ecosystem, and Pippin, as the largest AI community on Solana, directly interfaces with their ecosystem. Cross-chain privacy execution, stealth addresses, A2A transactions; if these functions are truly implemented, the technological moat will be deep enough.
Looking at institutional endorsements. Binance Labs seed round investment, Chainlink BUILD program's first batch of projects, two grants from the Ethereum Foundation, and $13.25M financing is not a small amount. On December 16, Chainlink Rewards Season 1 will open for claims, and this airdrop can add more fuel to the community. KuCoin just launched futures on December 8, with Bitget and Binance also having position support, liquidity is rapidly improving.
Why dare to get on board? The direction of FHE (Fully Homomorphic Encryption) is inherently sound - the combination of AI and privacy computing is a necessity, and Mind Network is a leading project in this track. Now at a price of $0.058, compared to the historical high of $0.073 in September, there is still room for growth, and this time the volume is significantly stronger than last time. In the short term, the resistance level is $0.065; after breaking through, it will head straight for $0.073; in the medium term, if the Solana ecosystem rises, the FDV of $56 million (at current prices) is still considered undervalued among similar projects.
I also make the risks clear: the daily RSI of 78 is indeed overheated, and there is a considerable probability of a short-term pullback to the support level of $0.05. Below $0.05, there is an $1.32M long liquidation pressure, and a break could lead to a cascade. But as long as there are substantial advancements in Solana's expansion, a pullback will be an opportunity to accumulate more.
#FHE
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On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued explanatory letter 1188 confirming that national banks have the authority to engage in cryptocurrency transactions with risk-free principal.On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in the United States issued explanatory letter 1188 confirming that national banks have the authority to engage in cryptocurrency transactions as a core banking business with risk-free principal. This seemingly technical clarification document is, in fact, a mild but lethal erosion initiated by the Trump administration's pro-crypto policy from TradFi against DeFi. When banks are allowed to act as matching principals, buying from one client and selling to another without holding inventory risk, they are essentially replicating the intermediary function of decentralized exchanges but with the KYC/AML compliance framework and centralized control of traditional finance. This represents a dimensionality reduction strike against DeFi protocols that tout anti-censorship and permissionless features, rather than healthy competition. The market's immediate reaction appears positive, with BTC rebounding from $90,618 to $92,723, up 2.3%, and ETH rising from $3,125 to $3,322, up 6.2%. The AI sector tokens led with a 4.46% increase. However, this surge reflects more of an expectation of short-term liquidity improvement rather than a long-term value reassessment. Once banks deeply engage in cryptocurrency trading intermediaries, they will gradually erode the market share of decentralized protocols using their capital advantages and customer base. The trading volume of DEXs like Uniswap and Curve may face systemic diversion from bank retail channels in the future. A more nuanced observation is that the OCC emphasizes that banks must operate 'safely and soundly' and comply with 'applicable laws,' which means that banking cryptocurrency operations will be subject to much stricter regulatory scrutiny than DeFi protocols. This asymmetric regulatory environment may become a lever for traditional banks to lobby for tighter DeFi regulations, demanding that DEXs and lending protocols implement equivalent compliance costs in the name of 'fair competition,' thus stifling the efficiency advantages of the latter. While cryptocurrency analysts and regulatory observers on social media generally view this guidance positively, believing it has built a bridge for TradFi-crypto integration, few question who sets the toll for this bridge and whether decentralized protocols will be reduced to objects of absorption or elimination in this integration. On-chain data shows that ETH saw a net inflow of 73,919 coins on December 9, seemingly confirming institutional optimism, but this may only be a pre-reserve behavior of the banking system before entry rather than true retail FOMO. Technically, ETH's 4-hour RSI reached 67.7, close to overbought, while the daily RSI of 57.8 indicates upward momentum, but the price remains below the 50-day moving average of $3,330, suggesting that the rebound may be a bear market rally rather than a trend reversal. Open interest surged by 8.37% to $41.2 billion, and Binance's funding rate of 0.00576% indicates that bulls are paying for high leverage; such a high-fee environment often precedes sharp corrections. The deeper contradiction is that while the OCC's explanatory letter nominally claims 'no inventory risk,' banks as intermediaries effectively control the routing, pricing, and timing of trade flows. They can sell order flow to high-frequency traders (PFOF model) or engage in legitimate front-running using information advantages. The transparency of DeFi and public competition for MEV will lose advantage in the face of banking black-box operations. Once banks establish retail entry points for cryptocurrency trading, their influence over regulators will be used to push for 'consumer protection' legislation, which in reality builds a moat for themselves against non-bank entities. Critics warn that systemic risks are not alarmist, as the high volatility of crypto assets, once transmitted through bank balance sheets into the traditional financial system, could trigger a chain reaction similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, the knee-jerk response of regulators would inevitably be to tighten rather than relax crypto policies. Therefore, the OCC's explanatory letter, on the surface a policy tailwind, is in fact a Trojan horse for integrating the cryptocurrency market into the traditional financial system. Its long-term effect may not be a rise in coin prices but rather the suffocation of DeFi innovation and the comprehensive dominance of centralized institutions over the market. The outcome of this covert war is likely to be a highly compliant, institutionally controlled, innovation-stifled, yet superficially prosperous pseudo-crypto market.

On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued explanatory letter 1188 confirming that national banks have the authority to engage in cryptocurrency transactions with risk-free principal.

On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in the United States issued explanatory letter 1188 confirming that national banks have the authority to engage in cryptocurrency transactions as a core banking business with risk-free principal. This seemingly technical clarification document is, in fact, a mild but lethal erosion initiated by the Trump administration's pro-crypto policy from TradFi against DeFi. When banks are allowed to act as matching principals, buying from one client and selling to another without holding inventory risk, they are essentially replicating the intermediary function of decentralized exchanges but with the KYC/AML compliance framework and centralized control of traditional finance. This represents a dimensionality reduction strike against DeFi protocols that tout anti-censorship and permissionless features, rather than healthy competition. The market's immediate reaction appears positive, with BTC rebounding from $90,618 to $92,723, up 2.3%, and ETH rising from $3,125 to $3,322, up 6.2%. The AI sector tokens led with a 4.46% increase. However, this surge reflects more of an expectation of short-term liquidity improvement rather than a long-term value reassessment. Once banks deeply engage in cryptocurrency trading intermediaries, they will gradually erode the market share of decentralized protocols using their capital advantages and customer base. The trading volume of DEXs like Uniswap and Curve may face systemic diversion from bank retail channels in the future. A more nuanced observation is that the OCC emphasizes that banks must operate 'safely and soundly' and comply with 'applicable laws,' which means that banking cryptocurrency operations will be subject to much stricter regulatory scrutiny than DeFi protocols. This asymmetric regulatory environment may become a lever for traditional banks to lobby for tighter DeFi regulations, demanding that DEXs and lending protocols implement equivalent compliance costs in the name of 'fair competition,' thus stifling the efficiency advantages of the latter. While cryptocurrency analysts and regulatory observers on social media generally view this guidance positively, believing it has built a bridge for TradFi-crypto integration, few question who sets the toll for this bridge and whether decentralized protocols will be reduced to objects of absorption or elimination in this integration. On-chain data shows that ETH saw a net inflow of 73,919 coins on December 9, seemingly confirming institutional optimism, but this may only be a pre-reserve behavior of the banking system before entry rather than true retail FOMO. Technically, ETH's 4-hour RSI reached 67.7, close to overbought, while the daily RSI of 57.8 indicates upward momentum, but the price remains below the 50-day moving average of $3,330, suggesting that the rebound may be a bear market rally rather than a trend reversal. Open interest surged by 8.37% to $41.2 billion, and Binance's funding rate of 0.00576% indicates that bulls are paying for high leverage; such a high-fee environment often precedes sharp corrections. The deeper contradiction is that while the OCC's explanatory letter nominally claims 'no inventory risk,' banks as intermediaries effectively control the routing, pricing, and timing of trade flows. They can sell order flow to high-frequency traders (PFOF model) or engage in legitimate front-running using information advantages. The transparency of DeFi and public competition for MEV will lose advantage in the face of banking black-box operations. Once banks establish retail entry points for cryptocurrency trading, their influence over regulators will be used to push for 'consumer protection' legislation, which in reality builds a moat for themselves against non-bank entities. Critics warn that systemic risks are not alarmist, as the high volatility of crypto assets, once transmitted through bank balance sheets into the traditional financial system, could trigger a chain reaction similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. At that time, the knee-jerk response of regulators would inevitably be to tighten rather than relax crypto policies. Therefore, the OCC's explanatory letter, on the surface a policy tailwind, is in fact a Trojan horse for integrating the cryptocurrency market into the traditional financial system. Its long-term effect may not be a rise in coin prices but rather the suffocation of DeFi innovation and the comprehensive dominance of centralized institutions over the market. The outcome of this covert war is likely to be a highly compliant, institutionally controlled, innovation-stifled, yet superficially prosperous pseudo-crypto market.
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The 'Trojan Horse' of Traditional Finance: How is APRO bringing Wall Street's money onto the chain?There is a question that has never been publicly discussed, but I think it is particularly crucial: someone in the founding team of @APRO-Oracle has previously worked in the blockchain department at JPMorgan. This background stands out in an industry full of 'DeFi purists.' There is a hierarchy of disdain in the crypto circle: DeFi veterans look down on CeFi workers, and on-chain natives look down on the 'traitors' coming from TradFi (traditional finance). However, I believe that this 'dual identity' is precisely APRO's greatest advantage—it understands the rules of the crypto world while also knowing the ins and outs of Wall Street. This 'bilingual ability' is the key to the success of RWA (real-world asset tokenization).

The 'Trojan Horse' of Traditional Finance: How is APRO bringing Wall Street's money onto the chain?

There is a question that has never been publicly discussed, but I think it is particularly crucial: someone in the founding team of @APRO Oracle has previously worked in the blockchain department at JPMorgan. This background stands out in an industry full of 'DeFi purists.'
There is a hierarchy of disdain in the crypto circle: DeFi veterans look down on CeFi workers, and on-chain natives look down on the 'traitors' coming from TradFi (traditional finance). However, I believe that this 'dual identity' is precisely APRO's greatest advantage—it understands the rules of the crypto world while also knowing the ins and outs of Wall Street. This 'bilingual ability' is the key to the success of RWA (real-world asset tokenization).
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40 chains are just an appetizer, what big move is APRO's cross-chain ambition hiding?Have you ever thought about a question: why is @APRO-Oracle working so hard to expand onto so many chains? Over 40 chains sounds impressive, but when you take a closer look, the mainstream ones like Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Arbitrum, and Base are already covered. Honestly, how many of the lesser-known chains have daily active users exceeding 10,000? How many have a TVL over 100 million USD? At first, I also thought APRO was just playing a numbers game—after all, the crypto space is full of projects that claim "I support 100 chains" and are just PPT projects. But after digging deeper, I found that APRO's cross-chain layout is not just for show; it’s part of a much larger strategy, and the core of this strategy can be summed up in four words: data sovereignty.

40 chains are just an appetizer, what big move is APRO's cross-chain ambition hiding?

Have you ever thought about a question: why is @APRO Oracle working so hard to expand onto so many chains? Over 40 chains sounds impressive, but when you take a closer look, the mainstream ones like Ethereum, BNB Chain, Solana, Arbitrum, and Base are already covered. Honestly, how many of the lesser-known chains have daily active users exceeding 10,000? How many have a TVL over 100 million USD?
At first, I also thought APRO was just playing a numbers game—after all, the crypto space is full of projects that claim "I support 100 chains" and are just PPT projects. But after digging deeper, I found that APRO's cross-chain layout is not just for show; it’s part of a much larger strategy, and the core of this strategy can be summed up in four words: data sovereignty.
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Lorenzo claims to support 20+ chains, but only 3 have real users.Lorenzo's official website proudly lists a long string of supported blockchains — Mantle, Taiko, Manta, BNB Chain, BEVM, Mode, Corn, Hemi, Botanix, Arbitrum, Aptos, Swell, Sui, Ethereum, Berachain, Bitlayer, B², Scroll, Movement Labs, X Layer, Merlin, counting more than 20 in total. This list looks impressive, giving the impression of Lorenzo being "everywhere." But if you really check the data on these chains, you will discover a harsh reality: Lorenzo's $600 million TVL is almost entirely concentrated on 3 chains, while the remaining 17 chains together might not even reach $10 million.

Lorenzo claims to support 20+ chains, but only 3 have real users.

Lorenzo's official website proudly lists a long string of supported blockchains — Mantle, Taiko, Manta, BNB Chain, BEVM, Mode, Corn, Hemi, Botanix, Arbitrum, Aptos, Swell, Sui, Ethereum, Berachain, Bitlayer, B², Scroll, Movement Labs, X Layer, Merlin, counting more than 20 in total.
This list looks impressive, giving the impression of Lorenzo being "everywhere." But if you really check the data on these chains, you will discover a harsh reality: Lorenzo's $600 million TVL is almost entirely concentrated on 3 chains, while the remaining 17 chains together might not even reach $10 million.
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KITE's Ozone Test Network Ran Over a Hundred Calls; It's Not Just Fake DataI have never had high hopes for this thing called the test network. In the cryptocurrency world over the years, how many projects have boasted about test networks with 'millions of daily active users' and 'billions of calls', only to reveal their true nature once they hit the mainnet—either turning out to be empty bots or fake data, discovering that the SDK is half-broken within a month, making it feel like stepping on a landmine. But last week, having nothing to do, I downloaded the KITE Ozone test network SDK and decided to give it a try myself. As a result, I couldn't stop once I started; I ran AI calls over a hundred times, simulating various scenarios, from simple data scraping to complex multi-agent collaboration, taking a full four days. The more I tried, the more I felt something was off—this test network wasn't just 'showing off its muscles,' but quietly accumulating real demands. Let me start with my first failed test to see what secrets the KITE Ozone test network is hiding and why it might become the 'low-key king' in the AI agent economy.

KITE's Ozone Test Network Ran Over a Hundred Calls; It's Not Just Fake Data

I have never had high hopes for this thing called the test network. In the cryptocurrency world over the years, how many projects have boasted about test networks with 'millions of daily active users' and 'billions of calls', only to reveal their true nature once they hit the mainnet—either turning out to be empty bots or fake data, discovering that the SDK is half-broken within a month, making it feel like stepping on a landmine. But last week, having nothing to do, I downloaded the KITE Ozone test network SDK and decided to give it a try myself. As a result, I couldn't stop once I started; I ran AI calls over a hundred times, simulating various scenarios, from simple data scraping to complex multi-agent collaboration, taking a full four days. The more I tried, the more I felt something was off—this test network wasn't just 'showing off its muscles,' but quietly accumulating real demands. Let me start with my first failed test to see what secrets the KITE Ozone test network is hiding and why it might become the 'low-key king' in the AI agent economy.
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Tonight the interest rate will be lowered, and it will also be Chairman Powell's last speech in the spotlight. I hope he can say something nice. In a few days, everyone will go listen to what the new chairman has to say.
Tonight the interest rate will be lowered, and it will also be Chairman Powell's last speech in the spotlight. I hope he can say something nice.
In a few days, everyone will go listen to what the new chairman has to say.
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What Does a Wallet in the Age of AI Actually Hold?Have you ever thought that in the future what we hold in our wallets will not be USD, nor BTC, but a GPU's 'future income rights'? It sounds like science fiction, but reality is already happening. On October 31st, @gaib_ai officially launched their AI synthetic dollar AID and staking certificate sAID on the mainnet. This is completely unlike an ordinary DeFi project launch; it feels more like the symphony of AI + RWA + blockchain is officially starting. GAIB's goal is to enable ordinary people to directly participate in the economy of AI and robotic infrastructure, rather than just being bystanders, which is really cool but also very dangerous.

What Does a Wallet in the Age of AI Actually Hold?

Have you ever thought that in the future what we hold in our wallets will not be USD, nor BTC, but a GPU's 'future income rights'? It sounds like science fiction, but reality is already happening. On October 31st, @GAIB AI officially launched their AI synthetic dollar AID and staking certificate sAID on the mainnet. This is completely unlike an ordinary DeFi project launch; it feels more like the symphony of AI + RWA + blockchain is officially starting. GAIB's goal is to enable ordinary people to directly participate in the economy of AI and robotic infrastructure, rather than just being bystanders, which is really cool but also very dangerous.
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Recently, at a rally in Pennsylvania, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly made a widely discussed accusation: he suspects that former President Joe Biden used an 'autopen' to sign appointment documents when appointing Federal Reserve officials, rather than signing them personally. Trump even called for future Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to investigate this matter, claiming it could affect the legitimacy of the appointments of these Federal Reserve governors, including the current chair. The so-called 'autopen' is a mechanical device that can replicate a personal signature, and it has been used by previous presidents when signing bulk or ceremonial documents, including letters, announcements, and more. Reuters has pointed out that this tool has been used across both Democratic and Republican administrations. Trump and his supporters claim that if the documents were indeed signed by an autopen and not directly authorized by the president, there could be legal issues. Financial News +2ABC +2 However, there is currently no solid evidence supporting this accusation, and historically, many presidents have used this device. The legal community generally believes that it is difficult to negate the validity of an appointment based solely on the form of signature, and ultimately, it may require a court to determine whether there was a lack of authorization or illegal behavior. So far, the Biden team has not publicly responded to this specific accusation. If the investigation finds that the appointments were indeed made without proper authorization, it could theoretically lead to legal disputes, even questioning the validity of certain appointments, but such challenges typically involve complex legal procedures and burdens of proof. Even so, both the political reality and the legal framework indicate that declaring presidentially appointed Federal Reserve appointments 'invalid' is not an easy task. The timing of this controversy is also very critical: the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair has entered a pivotal stage, with Kevin Hassett being one of the potential candidates widely discussed within the Trump administration, but the final nomination has yet to be determined. Suspicions about the legitimacy of these appointments and calls for investigation. Currently, there is no evidence to prove that signature issues can directly render the appointments invalid, and historically, it has been very common for presidents to use autopens. If the investigation proceeds, it may trigger confrontations on political and legal levels, but the actual legal threshold for overturning appointments is extremely high.
Recently, at a rally in Pennsylvania, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly made a widely discussed accusation: he suspects that former President Joe Biden used an 'autopen' to sign appointment documents when appointing Federal Reserve officials, rather than signing them personally. Trump even called for future Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to investigate this matter, claiming it could affect the legitimacy of the appointments of these Federal Reserve governors, including the current chair.
The so-called 'autopen' is a mechanical device that can replicate a personal signature, and it has been used by previous presidents when signing bulk or ceremonial documents, including letters, announcements, and more. Reuters has pointed out that this tool has been used across both Democratic and Republican administrations. Trump and his supporters claim that if the documents were indeed signed by an autopen and not directly authorized by the president, there could be legal issues. Financial News +2ABC +2
However, there is currently no solid evidence supporting this accusation, and historically, many presidents have used this device. The legal community generally believes that it is difficult to negate the validity of an appointment based solely on the form of signature, and ultimately, it may require a court to determine whether there was a lack of authorization or illegal behavior. So far, the Biden team has not publicly responded to this specific accusation.
If the investigation finds that the appointments were indeed made without proper authorization, it could theoretically lead to legal disputes, even questioning the validity of certain appointments, but such challenges typically involve complex legal procedures and burdens of proof. Even so, both the political reality and the legal framework indicate that declaring presidentially appointed Federal Reserve appointments 'invalid' is not an easy task.
The timing of this controversy is also very critical: the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair has entered a pivotal stage, with Kevin Hassett being one of the potential candidates widely discussed within the Trump administration, but the final nomination has yet to be determined.
Suspicions about the legitimacy of these appointments and calls for investigation.
Currently, there is no evidence to prove that signature issues can directly render the appointments invalid, and historically, it has been very common for presidents to use autopens.
If the investigation proceeds, it may trigger confrontations on political and legal levels, but the actual legal threshold for overturning appointments is extremely high.
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In November 2025, South Korea's largest exchange Upbit was attacked by $36 millionIn November 2025, South Korea's largest exchange Upbit was attacked by a hot wallet on the Solana chain, resulting in the theft of $36 million (44.5 billion KRW). Stolen assets included tokens such as SOL, BONK, JUP, RAY, PYTH, RNDR, USDC, and ORCA. Security company Halborn analyzed that the attackers exploited a flaw in the digital signature infrastructure to derive private keys from the on-chain history for withdrawals. The attack occurred on the same day that Upbit's parent company Dunamu was acquired and coincided with the sixth anniversary of the exchange's previous theft. This "ritualized" timing, along with the technical sophistication of the methods used, made the North Korean Lazarus Group the primary suspect. The deeper significance of this attack far exceeds the surface economic losses; it marks that state-level APT organizations have targeted cryptocurrency exchanges as long-term monetization objectives and have developed systematic attack capabilities. Although Upbit responded quickly by freezing deposits and withdrawals and announced on December 10 that 99% of user assets would be transferred to cold wallets—exceeding 80% of regulatory minimum standards—this post-event remedy does not erase the structural vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges when facing state-sponsored hackers. The market's reaction was relatively restrained; although BTC fell to $86,000 on December 2, this was more due to market adjustment rather than a single event. Localized impacts were mainly reflected in the short-term pressure on KRW trading pairs and a surge in trading volume. On-chain data showed that Solana's TVL had decreased from $11.3 billion to $9.1 billion in the period leading up to the attack (November 1-26), while after the attack on November 27, it slightly increased by 2% to $9.2 billion and then stabilized at $9 billion, indicating that the overall ecosystem's resilience remains. However, the net outflow of USDC on Solana reached -$294 million on November 27, possibly reflecting a panic withdrawal of some funds. A more nuanced perspective is that this attack exposed systematic flaws in the hot wallet signature architecture, as even leading exchanges have failed to achieve physical isolation of the signature process and zero-knowledge of key materials. Although Upbit's subsequent transfer of 99% of assets to cold storage enhances safety margins, it also implies a decrease in liquidity response speed and sacrifices user experience. This dilemma of balancing security and convenience becomes particularly acute in the face of state-sponsored hackers, as organizations like the Lazarus Group have resources and patience that far exceed ordinary hackers; they can linger in target systems for extended periods waiting for the optimal attack window. Furthermore, of the $175 million stolen in DeFi in November, Upbit accounted for 21%, indicating that centralized exchanges remain high-value targets for attacks. While social media and news outlets have pointed out the possibility of North Korean hackers and emphasized the need to improve key management models, few have discussed how to price the geopolitical risks posed by state-level attackers or whether the crypto industry should establish insurance or mutual aid mechanisms for such "force majeure" events. Upbit's promise to fully compensate users preserved its reputation, but the long-term impact of the $36 million loss on its financial health remains uncertain, and whether this "exchange-backed" model can be sustained depends on whether the frequency and scale of attacks remain within manageable limits. If future losses reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, even the largest exchanges may face insolvency crises. Technically, SOL's price has remained relatively stable post-breach at $137, with a 4-hour RSI of 58.9 indicating mild bullishness, but a daily RSI of 48.7 remains neutral, and the price is below the 50-day moving average of $145, suggesting limited upward momentum. Although open interest increased by 2.41% to $7.3 billion, the positive funding rates (Binance 0.001858%, Bybit 0.01%) indicate that long positions are becoming riskier at high levels. The overall declining OBV reflects distribution pressure, suggesting institutions may be using the rebound to offload assets. A deeper concern is that the Upbit incident has reinforced regulators' arguments for "more stringent regulation of centralized custodianship," which could catalyze an increase in exchange licensing and capital requirements both in South Korea and globally. Smaller exchanges may be eliminated under compliance cost pressures, further increasing market concentration while reducing competition and raising user costs. The ongoing existence of state-sponsored hackers makes "self-custody" the only absolutely safe choice, but the insufficient key management capabilities of retail investors mean that many users will suffer losses or choose to exit the market during this transition. Therefore, the Upbit theft is not just a security incident; it is a stress test for the crypto industry under the triple challenges of geopolitical issues, centralized risks, and user security education. The answer to this test may not be fully resolvable through technological advancement, as long as value is stored on connected devices and managed by centralized entities, there will always be a potential for breaches by state-level adversaries. The existence of this structural risk fundamentally jeopardizes the long-term stable growth of the crypto market unless the industry can find a new balance between decentralization, user experience, and regulatory compliance; otherwise, similar incidents will recur cyclically, continuously eroding market confidence and capital stock.

In November 2025, South Korea's largest exchange Upbit was attacked by $36 million

In November 2025, South Korea's largest exchange Upbit was attacked by a hot wallet on the Solana chain, resulting in the theft of $36 million (44.5 billion KRW). Stolen assets included tokens such as SOL, BONK, JUP, RAY, PYTH, RNDR, USDC, and ORCA. Security company Halborn analyzed that the attackers exploited a flaw in the digital signature infrastructure to derive private keys from the on-chain history for withdrawals. The attack occurred on the same day that Upbit's parent company Dunamu was acquired and coincided with the sixth anniversary of the exchange's previous theft. This "ritualized" timing, along with the technical sophistication of the methods used, made the North Korean Lazarus Group the primary suspect. The deeper significance of this attack far exceeds the surface economic losses; it marks that state-level APT organizations have targeted cryptocurrency exchanges as long-term monetization objectives and have developed systematic attack capabilities. Although Upbit responded quickly by freezing deposits and withdrawals and announced on December 10 that 99% of user assets would be transferred to cold wallets—exceeding 80% of regulatory minimum standards—this post-event remedy does not erase the structural vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges when facing state-sponsored hackers. The market's reaction was relatively restrained; although BTC fell to $86,000 on December 2, this was more due to market adjustment rather than a single event. Localized impacts were mainly reflected in the short-term pressure on KRW trading pairs and a surge in trading volume. On-chain data showed that Solana's TVL had decreased from $11.3 billion to $9.1 billion in the period leading up to the attack (November 1-26), while after the attack on November 27, it slightly increased by 2% to $9.2 billion and then stabilized at $9 billion, indicating that the overall ecosystem's resilience remains. However, the net outflow of USDC on Solana reached -$294 million on November 27, possibly reflecting a panic withdrawal of some funds. A more nuanced perspective is that this attack exposed systematic flaws in the hot wallet signature architecture, as even leading exchanges have failed to achieve physical isolation of the signature process and zero-knowledge of key materials. Although Upbit's subsequent transfer of 99% of assets to cold storage enhances safety margins, it also implies a decrease in liquidity response speed and sacrifices user experience. This dilemma of balancing security and convenience becomes particularly acute in the face of state-sponsored hackers, as organizations like the Lazarus Group have resources and patience that far exceed ordinary hackers; they can linger in target systems for extended periods waiting for the optimal attack window. Furthermore, of the $175 million stolen in DeFi in November, Upbit accounted for 21%, indicating that centralized exchanges remain high-value targets for attacks. While social media and news outlets have pointed out the possibility of North Korean hackers and emphasized the need to improve key management models, few have discussed how to price the geopolitical risks posed by state-level attackers or whether the crypto industry should establish insurance or mutual aid mechanisms for such "force majeure" events. Upbit's promise to fully compensate users preserved its reputation, but the long-term impact of the $36 million loss on its financial health remains uncertain, and whether this "exchange-backed" model can be sustained depends on whether the frequency and scale of attacks remain within manageable limits. If future losses reach hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, even the largest exchanges may face insolvency crises. Technically, SOL's price has remained relatively stable post-breach at $137, with a 4-hour RSI of 58.9 indicating mild bullishness, but a daily RSI of 48.7 remains neutral, and the price is below the 50-day moving average of $145, suggesting limited upward momentum. Although open interest increased by 2.41% to $7.3 billion, the positive funding rates (Binance 0.001858%, Bybit 0.01%) indicate that long positions are becoming riskier at high levels. The overall declining OBV reflects distribution pressure, suggesting institutions may be using the rebound to offload assets. A deeper concern is that the Upbit incident has reinforced regulators' arguments for "more stringent regulation of centralized custodianship," which could catalyze an increase in exchange licensing and capital requirements both in South Korea and globally. Smaller exchanges may be eliminated under compliance cost pressures, further increasing market concentration while reducing competition and raising user costs. The ongoing existence of state-sponsored hackers makes "self-custody" the only absolutely safe choice, but the insufficient key management capabilities of retail investors mean that many users will suffer losses or choose to exit the market during this transition. Therefore, the Upbit theft is not just a security incident; it is a stress test for the crypto industry under the triple challenges of geopolitical issues, centralized risks, and user security education. The answer to this test may not be fully resolvable through technological advancement, as long as value is stored on connected devices and managed by centralized entities, there will always be a potential for breaches by state-level adversaries. The existence of this structural risk fundamentally jeopardizes the long-term stable growth of the crypto market unless the industry can find a new balance between decentralization, user experience, and regulatory compliance; otherwise, similar incidents will recur cyclically, continuously eroding market confidence and capital stock.
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MEGAETH TGE is scheduled for March 2026 AAVE disclosed details we did not previously know in the proposal to launch the protocol on MegaETH put forth by the DAO. If AAVE is one of the strategic protocols the foundation wants to introduce into its ecosystem (thus they have more information than us regular people), I would not be surprised at all. Therefore, the MegaETH season may last about two months (according to the information in the proposal). If the mainnet launch time is still set for January 2026 (which currently seems very likely), then the incentive program may also be launched in sync with the mainnet. Thus, the first season's incentive program will end around March/April 2026, which may coincide with the timing of the $MEGA token lottery. Unless the foundation brings us new surprises in this regard, this timetable should be correct. This explains why AAVE wants to deploy on MegaETH from day one.
MEGAETH TGE is scheduled for March 2026
AAVE disclosed details we did not previously know in the proposal to launch the protocol on MegaETH put forth by the DAO. If AAVE is one of the strategic protocols the foundation wants to introduce into its ecosystem (thus they have more information than us regular people), I would not be surprised at all.
Therefore, the MegaETH season may last about two months (according to the information in the proposal).
If the mainnet launch time is still set for January 2026 (which currently seems very likely), then the incentive program may also be launched in sync with the mainnet. Thus, the first season's incentive program will end around March/April 2026, which may coincide with the timing of the $MEGA token lottery.
Unless the foundation brings us new surprises in this regard, this timetable should be correct.
This explains why AAVE wants to deploy on MegaETH from day one.
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After Ethereum completed the Fusaka upgrade, many mistakenly believed that the introduction of the 'blob fee minimum reserve price' mechanism (approximately equivalent to 1/16 of the execution layer base fee) through EIP-7918 would enable Ethereum to regain economic dominance and solve the value capture problem of ETH. However, the reality is still far from that. Currently, L2 still captures the vast majority of profits; for example, Base retains over 70% of its economic benefits, while the blob costs paid to Ethereum L1 are just a tiny fraction. To truly alleviate the issue of unequal value capture and address the structural contradictions of liquidity fragmentation between L2s, there are feasible paths, one of the most discussed solutions being Based Rollup. Its core idea is that L2 no longer builds an additional centralized sequencer or independent small validator system, but directly inherits the existing decentralized security and activity of Ethereum L1; if native execution layer integration (Native Rollup) is added in the future, the overall architecture will be more complete. The value of Based Rollup lies in addressing the two most challenging issues currently facing the Ethereum ecosystem: liquidity fragmentation and ETH's inability to capture its rightful earnings. Most L2s currently still rely on centralized sequencers, which means that the Sequencer can arbitrarily reject transactions, causing the entire L2 to halt during outages, while profits and MEV are monopolized by the team, leaving ETH completely unable to participate in profit distribution. Based Rollup, based on L1 sorting, returns the sorting to Ethereum's block proposers, with finality and security guaranteed by data availability and proof systems. As a result, transactions from different Based Rollups will be sorted within the same L1 block, inherently possessing natural interoperability across L2s, significantly reducing liquidity fragmentation. At the same time, since sorting revenues flow back to L1, the profits originally monopolized by L2 will become income for L1 proposers, which means ETH stakers will directly receive higher rewards, achieving stronger value capture. The key issue is whether L2 teams are willing to give up this portion of profit. Given the current ecological atmosphere, most L2s will find it difficult to actively choose this highly reciprocal economic model towards L1. Interestingly, Reya
After Ethereum completed the Fusaka upgrade, many mistakenly believed that the introduction of the 'blob fee minimum reserve price' mechanism (approximately equivalent to 1/16 of the execution layer base fee) through EIP-7918 would enable Ethereum to regain economic dominance and solve the value capture problem of ETH. However, the reality is still far from that. Currently, L2 still captures the vast majority of profits; for example, Base retains over 70% of its economic benefits, while the blob costs paid to Ethereum L1 are just a tiny fraction. To truly alleviate the issue of unequal value capture and address the structural contradictions of liquidity fragmentation between L2s, there are feasible paths, one of the most discussed solutions being Based Rollup. Its core idea is that L2 no longer builds an additional centralized sequencer or independent small validator system, but directly inherits the existing decentralized security and activity of Ethereum L1; if native execution layer integration (Native Rollup) is added in the future, the overall architecture will be more complete. The value of Based Rollup lies in addressing the two most challenging issues currently facing the Ethereum ecosystem: liquidity fragmentation and ETH's inability to capture its rightful earnings. Most L2s currently still rely on centralized sequencers, which means that the Sequencer can arbitrarily reject transactions, causing the entire L2 to halt during outages, while profits and MEV are monopolized by the team, leaving ETH completely unable to participate in profit distribution. Based Rollup, based on L1 sorting, returns the sorting to Ethereum's block proposers, with finality and security guaranteed by data availability and proof systems. As a result, transactions from different Based Rollups will be sorted within the same L1 block, inherently possessing natural interoperability across L2s, significantly reducing liquidity fragmentation. At the same time, since sorting revenues flow back to L1, the profits originally monopolized by L2 will become income for L1 proposers, which means ETH stakers will directly receive higher rewards, achieving stronger value capture. The key issue is whether L2 teams are willing to give up this portion of profit. Given the current ecological atmosphere, most L2s will find it difficult to actively choose this highly reciprocal economic model towards L1. Interestingly, Reya
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🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧
Vulgar Penguin Elegant Person $恶俗企鹅
{alpha}(560xe1e93e92c0c2aff2dc4d7d4a8b250d973cad4444)
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Big sister's WeChat was hacked, only pulled in so little, it's really disrespectful to big sister.
Big sister's WeChat was hacked, only pulled in so little, it's really disrespectful to big sister.
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The more we grow, the harder it is for people to truly see the depths of our souls, the harder it is for them to listen to and understand our values, and to distinguish between fiction and reality. The cryptocurrency Twitter sphere is like a blend that is hard to discern between true and false. One moment you can find life-changing information, and the next moment you might see some worthless yet widely spread garbage tweets. It is very difficult to filter out truly valuable information from it, much more difficult than most people imagine. But after all... who ever said that life was supposed to be easy?
The more we grow, the harder it is for people to truly see the depths of our souls, the harder it is for them to listen to and understand our values, and to distinguish between fiction and reality.

The cryptocurrency Twitter sphere is like a blend that is hard to discern between true and false. One moment you can find life-changing information, and the next moment you might see some worthless yet widely spread garbage tweets. It is very difficult to filter out truly valuable information from it, much more difficult than most people imagine.

But after all... who ever said that life was supposed to be easy?
🎙️ 价值共识,聪聪聪!
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Why APRO Oracle is the dark horse that will soon disrupt the crypto data landscapeBro, I've been navigating the cryptocurrency space for several years now, and after various projects hype up and eventually fade away like a bad party, I occasionally come across some projects that catch my eye, making me think, 'Alright, this isn’t just another pump-and-dump scheme — it really has the potential to change the game.' That's the feeling I have about APRO Oracle right now. @APRO_Oracle hasn’t been hyped; it’s like a quiet fortress, building itself while others are busy throwing confetti. And it does so with

Why APRO Oracle is the dark horse that will soon disrupt the crypto data landscape

Bro, I've been navigating the cryptocurrency space for several years now, and after various projects hype up and eventually fade away like a bad party, I occasionally come across some projects that catch my eye, making me think, 'Alright, this isn’t just another pump-and-dump scheme — it really has the potential to change the game.' That's the feeling I have about APRO Oracle right now. @APRO_Oracle hasn’t been hyped; it’s like a quiet fortress, building itself while others are busy throwing confetti. And it does so with
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The Game Behind 1 Billion Tokens: What Secrets Are Hidden in APRO's Token Economics?There is an old saying in the crypto circle: to determine whether a project is reliable, first look at its token economics. How much does the team take? How much do VCs take? How much can retail investors get? Is the unlocking schedule a ticking time bomb? Behind these questions lies the true intentions and long-term plans of the project team. When I first analyzed the token economics of @APRO-Oracle, I was a bit confused when I saw that allocation table—1 billion AT total supply, with only 230 million in circulation, and the remaining 770 million locked. The team gets 10%, investors 20%, ecosystem 25%, staking rewards 20%, and each part has its own unlocking schedule, with some needing to wait for a 1-year cliff and others for 2 years. With such a complex design, what exactly is going on?

The Game Behind 1 Billion Tokens: What Secrets Are Hidden in APRO's Token Economics?

There is an old saying in the crypto circle: to determine whether a project is reliable, first look at its token economics. How much does the team take? How much do VCs take? How much can retail investors get? Is the unlocking schedule a ticking time bomb? Behind these questions lies the true intentions and long-term plans of the project team.
When I first analyzed the token economics of @APRO-Oracle, I was a bit confused when I saw that allocation table—1 billion AT total supply, with only 230 million in circulation, and the remaining 770 million locked. The team gets 10%, investors 20%, ecosystem 25%, staking rewards 20%, and each part has its own unlocking schedule, with some needing to wait for a 1-year cliff and others for 2 years. With such a complex design, what exactly is going on?
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