This week in the crypto market, to put it bluntly, it has been a test of patience, and everyone's patience is wearing thin.
Even though interest rates have been cut, Bitcoin (BTC) is still performing relatively steadily without much drama; on the contrary, Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded more vigorously, leading the market to start wondering: is the altcoin season approaching? Moreover, some altcoins have indeed already started moving, with weekly gains directly hitting double digits.
Weekly Winners
MemeCore [M] — An L1 focused on memes, the brightest star of the week, directly leading the market.
MemeCore (M) surged 42% this week, firmly sitting in first place. The trend is starting to show some FOMO flavor—after three consecutive weeks of declines, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 60%, this week finally produced the first decent bullish candle.
Looking more closely, this rebound has brought the price back to the fluctuation range of late November. To be honest, it's no wonder that everyone is starting to hesitate: can this place continue to push up? A weekly increase of nearly 50% is already significant, especially as momentum begins to slow down, making it easier for fluctuations to occur.
However, the technical aspect is still relatively healthy for now. The weekly RSI is around 60, which hasn't reached a state that looks 'topped out' at first glance. If momentum can keep up, M is likely holding its breath to test the key point of $2.
However, it should be noted that the bears have quietly returned. After a temporary pullback of 6.97% during the day, selling pressure has obviously started to increase, mainly pressing on the supply area above $1.90–$2.00 — this is also the strong resistance that M has been unable to break through since late November.
If the bulls can hold the position and not get smashed through, it is possible to see another bearish squeeze, and the price may have a chance to directly break through $2. But if it is pressed down here again, the price will likely need to find support below, and overall momentum will significantly cool down.
Merlin Chain (MERL) — Bitcoin L2 wants to continue to rise, must first surpass resistance
Merlin Chain (MERL) is the second highest gainer this week, increasing by 33% from an opening price of $0.35. After eight consecutive weeks of sideways consolidation, the weekly line has finally formed a very standard 'breakout after consolidation' pattern.
On-chain data is also endorsing this wave of market trend. The double-digit rise of MERL is mainly due to the continuous increase in the number of holders, and early signs of FOMO have begun to appear. Against this backdrop, market momentum remains online.
However, it should be noted that $0.50 is a key resistance level that must be closely monitored.
Once this position breaks effectively, the upward trend is likely to continue; from a fundamental perspective, the probability of this area forming a bearish trap is increasing. Overall, as long as the bulls continue to push, MERL is likely to become a short-term target with very strong momentum.
Zcash [ZEC] — This privacy coin is still struggling to find a bottom
Zcash (ZEC) rose 25% this week, ranking third in terms of gains, thus reaching a very critical turning point. It should be noted that before this, ZEC had led the decline for three consecutive weeks, with bear positions stacked quite heavily.
From this perspective, this wave looks more like a decisive bearish squeeze: the back row of bears was directly stuck, and the price rapidly surged. To make this wave of market trend healthier, ZEC is more likely to move sideways to digest chips in the next week, rather than continuing to pull up sharply.
If this bottom can hold steady, ZEC has the opportunity to slowly repair towards the previous high, even testing the important resistance of $70. In the short term, a more reasonable path is still to first fluctuate, wash out the remaining bears, and then wait for a true breakout to occur.
Other altcoins worth paying attention to
Aside from mainstream coins, many altcoins have directly grabbed the spotlight this week, with some rising quite absurdly.
FOLKS [FOLKS] leads the field with an exaggerated increase of 287%, followed closely by NUMINE TOKEN [NUMI] with an increase of 187%, and Pippin [PIPPIN] also did not back down, soaring by 98%, placing at the bottom of the list.
This week's losers
IP — This L1 token has basically given back all the gains from last week.
Story (IP) led the decline this week, dropping 10%. Given the current environment of rising risk aversion, this decline is still relatively acceptable, especially as many L1 projects are facing the issue of continuously shrinking on-chain trading volume.
But the problem with IP is not just the unfavorable environment; the chart itself looks worse. From a weekly perspective, the structure has clearly turned bearish — since breaking below $6 in mid-October, there have been seven consecutive weekly red candles, which is no longer a normal correction, but more like funds admitting defeat and exiting.
If this trend continues, the probability of falling below $1 is rapidly increasing, and it is likely to undergo a real bottoming process next.
From a technical perspective, the RSI is currently around 38, which hasn't reached a 'seriously oversold' level, indicating that there may still be room below. Coupled with the fact that the bears are clearly in control, the bulls are basically unable to organize a decent defense, making it quite difficult to turn things around in the short term.
Jupiter [JUP] — DEX in the Solana ecosystem, key support not held
Jupiter (JUP) is the second largest decline this week, falling from $0.22 by 9.17%. Like IP, JUP is also being continuously drained of funds, and compared to the high of $0.44 at the end of November, it has almost been cut in half.
So, has the selling pressure eased? The answer is: no. The weekly structure is still dictated by the bears, and the bulls have repeatedly failed to hold key support, indicating that the selling side is still continuously increasing.
Even though there was a small rebound of only 4% in late November, the bulls still failed to stabilize at the position of $0.25, turning it into support, which instead became a new pressure level, and the price continued to drop. In this situation, as long as the bears continue to control the market, the risk of JUP falling below $0.20 remains very high.
GRT — Data track, bearish market atmosphere still prevails
Graph (GRT) fell 9% this week, ranking third in terms of decline. Although GRT and JUP are both weakening and frequently losing support, GRT's chart is relatively not as desperate.
Since the third quarter, the bulls have already made two attempts to build a bottom: once around $0.08 and once around $0.07. But both times they were directly pressed back by the bears, and the price could only continue to grind downwards.
However, unlike JUP, GRT can still see funds buying on dips, which gives it a slight advantage. If this behavior can continue, it is not ruled out that a more decent accumulation trend may emerge. The most important thing to monitor right now is still the changes in trading volume.
Other noteworthy losers
Looking at the entire market, this round of decline has hit many small coins quite hard.
Legacy Token [LGTC] suffered the worst, plummeting 66%, followed closely by OKZOO [AIOT] with a decline of 64%, and Pieverse [PIEVERSE] also fell by 52%, with the previous surge basically all gone.
