【BTC Indicator Update】

【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (10)】

17-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1135 days
21-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1161 days
Current Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1013 days

BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain metric used to measure the "average purchase price" of all circulating bitcoins in the Bitcoin network. It is not an instantaneous valuation based on current market prices, but instead values each UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output, the smallest unit of bitcoin) at the price at the time of its last on-chain transfer, and then averages the values of all circulating bitcoins. This reflects the average cost actually paid by holders, rather than the current market price driven by speculative sentiment.

Realized Price mainly reflects the overall average holding cost of Bitcoin holders and the stability of market sentiment, often regarded as the "psychological support line" or "value anchor point" for Bitcoin prices.

When the market price > Realized Price, holders are generally in a profitable state, indicating strong market confidence, which may drive the continuation of a bull market.
When the market price < Realized Price, holders are generally in a loss state, and selling pressure may weaken (due to unwillingness to sell at a low price), which is often a signal of the bottom of a bear market, attracting value investors to accumulate.

Historical data shows that when the market price crosses the Realized Price, it often marks a turning point in the cycle: crossing upward indicates the initiation of a bull market, while crossing downward suggests a deepening bear market.