CryptoChan
Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不收费，无投资理财建议 || X：@0xCryptoChan
11 Following
19.0K+ Followers
36.6K+ Liked
2.8K+ Shared
All
Quotes
PINNED
See original
Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
See original
Waiting for the light green bottom signal to appear again
Bitcoin: Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDD Multiple) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin that measures the ratio of short-term spending velocity to the long-term average level, helping to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms. It is based on Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which is the number of coin days destroyed (giving higher weight to Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time to reflect the behavior of long-term holders), and then multiplied by the current Bitcoin price to obtain Value Days Destroyed (VDD). The calculation formula for VDD Multiple is: the average of 30-day VDD divided by the average of 365-day VDD
When VDD Multiple < 0.75 (the light green area in the chart), it reflects a reduction in short-term spending velocity relative to the annual average level, indicating that long-term holders are selling old coins less frequently, and the overall market spending vitality is lower. This usually suggests that the market is in a cooling period, accumulation phase, or potential cycle bottom, with long-term holders more inclined to hold rather than sell, possibly representing relative undervaluation or buying opportunities.
Note: The current high reading of this indicator is due to the recent address consolidation by Coinbase, and the data pollution caused by this event will be eliminated 30 days after it occurs.
Bitcoin: Value Days Destroyed Multiple (VDD Multiple) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin that measures the ratio of short-term spending velocity to the long-term average level, helping to identify potential market cycle tops and bottoms. It is based on Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which is the number of coin days destroyed (giving higher weight to Bitcoin that has not moved for a long time to reflect the behavior of long-term holders), and then multiplied by the current Bitcoin price to obtain Value Days Destroyed (VDD). The calculation formula for VDD Multiple is: the average of 30-day VDD divided by the average of 365-day VDD
When VDD Multiple < 0.75 (the light green area in the chart), it reflects a reduction in short-term spending velocity relative to the annual average level, indicating that long-term holders are selling old coins less frequently, and the overall market spending vitality is lower. This usually suggests that the market is in a cooling period, accumulation phase, or potential cycle bottom, with long-term holders more inclined to hold rather than sell, possibly representing relative undervaluation or buying opportunities.
Note: The current high reading of this indicator is due to the recent address consolidation by Coinbase, and the data pollution caused by this event will be eliminated 30 days after it occurs.
See original
【BTC Indicator Update】
In the bull market of 2017, the price of the coin > Realized Price for a total of 1135 days
In the bull market of 2021, the price of the coin > Realized Price for a total of 1161 days
In this round of the bull market, the price of the coin > Realized Price currently for a total of 1068 days
In the bull market of 2017, the price of the coin > Realized Price for a total of 1135 days
In the bull market of 2021, the price of the coin > Realized Price for a total of 1161 days
In this round of the bull market, the price of the coin > Realized Price currently for a total of 1068 days
CryptoChan
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (10)】
17-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1135 days
21-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1161 days
Current Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1013 days
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain metric used to measure the "average purchase price" of all circulating bitcoins in the Bitcoin network. It is not an instantaneous valuation based on current market prices, but instead values each UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output, the smallest unit of bitcoin) at the price at the time of its last on-chain transfer, and then averages the values of all circulating bitcoins. This reflects the average cost actually paid by holders, rather than the current market price driven by speculative sentiment.
Realized Price mainly reflects the overall average holding cost of Bitcoin holders and the stability of market sentiment, often regarded as the "psychological support line" or "value anchor point" for Bitcoin prices.
When the market price > Realized Price, holders are generally in a profitable state, indicating strong market confidence, which may drive the continuation of a bull market.
When the market price < Realized Price, holders are generally in a loss state, and selling pressure may weaken (due to unwillingness to sell at a low price), which is often a signal of the bottom of a bear market, attracting value investors to accumulate.
Historical data shows that when the market price crosses the Realized Price, it often marks a turning point in the cycle: crossing upward indicates the initiation of a bull market, while crossing downward suggests a deepening bear market.
17-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1135 days
21-year Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1161 days
Current Bull Market, Coin Price > Realized Price for a total of 1013 days
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain metric used to measure the "average purchase price" of all circulating bitcoins in the Bitcoin network. It is not an instantaneous valuation based on current market prices, but instead values each UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output, the smallest unit of bitcoin) at the price at the time of its last on-chain transfer, and then averages the values of all circulating bitcoins. This reflects the average cost actually paid by holders, rather than the current market price driven by speculative sentiment.
Realized Price mainly reflects the overall average holding cost of Bitcoin holders and the stability of market sentiment, often regarded as the "psychological support line" or "value anchor point" for Bitcoin prices.
When the market price > Realized Price, holders are generally in a profitable state, indicating strong market confidence, which may drive the continuation of a bull market.
When the market price < Realized Price, holders are generally in a loss state, and selling pressure may weaken (due to unwillingness to sell at a low price), which is often a signal of the bottom of a bear market, attracting value investors to accumulate.
Historical data shows that when the market price crosses the Realized Price, it often marks a turning point in the cycle: crossing upward indicates the initiation of a bull market, while crossing downward suggests a deepening bear market.
See original
It won't destroy you overnight
But will gradually
Swallow your confidence, resources, and endurance like the tide
But will gradually
Swallow your confidence, resources, and endurance like the tide
吴说区块链
--
My first entrepreneurship in Web3: from high morale to project dissolution due to funding failure
Original author | Keegan Xiao Gang
Original link:
My first entrepreneurship in Web3: from building a DEX team to a broken funding chain
Statement: This article is reproduced content, and Wu Shuo has obtained authorization from the author for reproduction. Readers can obtain more information through the original link. Reproduction is for information sharing only, does not constitute any investment advice, and does not represent Wu Shuo's views and positions.
The full text is as follows:
I reviewed the technical content output over the past few years and clarified the direction going forward: no longer just focusing on 'explaining technology', but hoping to approach it from the perspective of a Builder. On one hand, I will reflect on the projects I have worked on in the past, and on the other hand, I will document the process of new projects I will personally attempt next — not just discussing 'how to write technology', but more about 'how to make things happen, or fail to do so.'
Original link:
My first entrepreneurship in Web3: from building a DEX team to a broken funding chain
Statement: This article is reproduced content, and Wu Shuo has obtained authorization from the author for reproduction. Readers can obtain more information through the original link. Reproduction is for information sharing only, does not constitute any investment advice, and does not represent Wu Shuo's views and positions.
The full text is as follows:
I reviewed the technical content output over the past few years and clarified the direction going forward: no longer just focusing on 'explaining technology', but hoping to approach it from the perspective of a Builder. On one hand, I will reflect on the projects I have worked on in the past, and on the other hand, I will document the process of new projects I will personally attempt next — not just discussing 'how to write technology', but more about 'how to make things happen, or fail to do so.'
See original
The mouth is tightening (Bitcoin realized profits have decreased & realized losses have increased)
The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"
This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.
In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.
Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.
The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"
This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.
In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.
Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.
See original
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
CryptoChan
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (16)】
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
See original
The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR indicator has dipped to the low point of this bull market
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR stands for Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is the ratio of profits realized by long-term holders who have spent their outputs. It is an on-chain Bitcoin metric that calculates the profit ratio of addresses (defined as long-term holders) that have held for more than 155 days when they sell Bitcoin. Specifically, this indicator assesses the ratio of the selling price of these long-held coins to their original acquisition price: if LTH-SOPR is greater than 1, it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a profit; equal to 1 indicates a break-even; and less than 1 indicates a loss on sale.
This indicator reflects the market behavior of long-term holders and the overall market sentiment. For example, when LTH-SOPR is high, it may suggest that long-term holders are locking in profits, implying that the market may be at the peak of a bull market or in an overheated phase; conversely, when it is low (especially below 1), it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which may signal the market bottom or the end of a bear market, thus helping investors determine potential buying or selling opportunities.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR stands for Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is the ratio of profits realized by long-term holders who have spent their outputs. It is an on-chain Bitcoin metric that calculates the profit ratio of addresses (defined as long-term holders) that have held for more than 155 days when they sell Bitcoin. Specifically, this indicator assesses the ratio of the selling price of these long-held coins to their original acquisition price: if LTH-SOPR is greater than 1, it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a profit; equal to 1 indicates a break-even; and less than 1 indicates a loss on sale.
This indicator reflects the market behavior of long-term holders and the overall market sentiment. For example, when LTH-SOPR is high, it may suggest that long-term holders are locking in profits, implying that the market may be at the peak of a bull market or in an overheated phase; conversely, when it is low (especially below 1), it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which may signal the market bottom or the end of a bear market, thus helping investors determine potential buying or selling opportunities.
See original
Reviewing the significant drop below the lower bound of the Bitcoin SSR indicator after each cycle's peak in history
Is this the first wave?👀
Is this the first wave?👀
See original
The premium level of put options in the BTC options market (6-month expiration) has soared to the level seen during the 2022 Luna crisis.
This may indicate that the current market is experiencing heightened panic regarding a continued downward bear trend and demand for downside protection (reaching the level of the Luna crisis).
This may indicate that the current market is experiencing heightened panic regarding a continued downward bear trend and demand for downside protection (reaching the level of the Luna crisis).
See original
【BTC Classic Five-Line Chart】Updated, Current——
Line 1: $46,390
Line 2: $68,952
Line 3: $102,795
Line 4: $159,201
Line 5: $249,449
Line 1: $46,390
Line 2: $68,952
Line 3: $102,795
Line 4: $159,201
Line 5: $249,449
CryptoChan
--
Don't panic, Line3's big support is still there, and my great BTC has its own cycle here😎
The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
See original
BTC dropping to the 'True Market Mean Price' often signifies a significant clearing of speculative bubbles.
The result of the bubble clearing makes it even more uncertain whether the market will trend bullish or bearish.
What can currently be expected is a period of consolidation + a potential decent rebound.
Note:
True Market Mean Price (真实市场成本价) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin, primarily used to assess the average cost of buying Bitcoin for active market participants.
It focuses on the Bitcoin that is actually traded and circulated in the secondary market by excluding the Bitcoin produced by miners (i.e., ignoring the impact of mining activities), helping to identify whether the market is in a state of 'overvaluation' (price significantly above TMMP, indicating a speculative bubble) or 'undervaluation' (price below TMMP, presenting potential buying opportunities).
The result of the bubble clearing makes it even more uncertain whether the market will trend bullish or bearish.
What can currently be expected is a period of consolidation + a potential decent rebound.
Note:
True Market Mean Price (真实市场成本价) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin, primarily used to assess the average cost of buying Bitcoin for active market participants.
It focuses on the Bitcoin that is actually traded and circulated in the secondary market by excluding the Bitcoin produced by miners (i.e., ignoring the impact of mining activities), helping to identify whether the market is in a state of 'overvaluation' (price significantly above TMMP, indicating a speculative bubble) or 'undervaluation' (price below TMMP, presenting potential buying opportunities).
See original
Brothers, 80,000 small ones have come in, meow 😼
CryptoChan
--
Damn! I'm really done with this $81,839 (spot order), I got it in 3 hours 😂, the spot is fully loaded brothers 😂
See original
Ethereum can always create a higher coin price and a lower floating profit multiple for holders, forming a 'double top'.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the ETH price; the indicator at the bottom is ETH: MVRV (MVRV = Market Value/Cost, reflecting the current floating profit/loss level of all network holders.)
The indicator at the top of the chart is the ETH price; the indicator at the bottom is ETH: MVRV (MVRV = Market Value/Cost, reflecting the current floating profit/loss level of all network holders.)
See original
Damn! I'm really done with this $81,839 (spot order), I got it in 3 hours 😂, the spot is fully loaded brothers 😂
CryptoChan
--
On November 21, 2025, the personal trading system shows BTC $81,839 available for spot trading without leverage (the $81,839 is the dynamic bottom value generated by the personal trading system, which changes daily, and it is expected that this dynamic bottom value will continue to slightly decline over the next few days).
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
See original
On November 21, 2025, the personal trading system shows BTC $81,839 available for spot trading without leverage (the $81,839 is the dynamic bottom value generated by the personal trading system, which changes daily, and it is expected that this dynamic bottom value will continue to slightly decline over the next few days).
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
See original
[BTC Indicator Update] Strongly inserting chips into thin zones and squeezing in a little 😎
CryptoChan
--
BTC breaks below $90,000, many people have been breached...
Yesterday, many bulls in the social circle had their hearts broken, and even a giant whale accurately sold at the lowest point of over $89,000 (I don't understand, but I was greatly shocked.GIF🐶)
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
See original
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (16)】
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
CryptoChan
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (15)】
In June 2015, after this indicator peaked, it took 916 days to reach the bull peak.
In March 2019, after this indicator peaked, it took 954 days to reach the bull peak.
In January 2023, after this indicator peaked, it took 1002 days to reach $126k.
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the ratio of the "average purchase price of Bitcoin long-term holders" to the "average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders."
The average purchase price of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, typically referring to investors holding for more than 155 days) compared to short-term holders (STH, typically referring to investors holding for less than 155 days), expressed as (LTH Realized Price / STH Realized Price), mainly reflects the relative cost basis differences among different holder groups in the Bitcoin market, thereby revealing market cycle phases, investor sentiment, and potential reversal signals.
A lower ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is lower relative to short-term holders, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market or at the peak. At this time, short-term holders (often new entrants) buy at higher prices, leading to their higher cost basis, while long-term holders hold at lower costs. This situation reflects an overheated market, strong demand but insufficient supply, and may signal an impending price correction or a transition into a bear market, as new participants are likely to capitulate in price fluctuations.
A higher ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is higher relative to short-term holders, commonly seen at the bottoms of bear markets or in recovery stages. Short-term holders may buy at lower prices (for example, after panic selling), while long-term holders have a relatively higher cost basis (due to their earlier purchases). This reflects that market capitulation behavior is occurring, with recent participants realizing losses, and the market may enter an accumulation phase, signaling a potential upward reversal until prices exceed the cost of short-term holders or long-term holder groups adjust.
Changes in LTH/STH can serve as indicators for assessing market health and the distribution of holder behavior, helping to determine whether one is in a state of excessive optimism or panic.
In June 2015, after this indicator peaked, it took 916 days to reach the bull peak.
In March 2019, after this indicator peaked, it took 954 days to reach the bull peak.
In January 2023, after this indicator peaked, it took 1002 days to reach $126k.
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the ratio of the "average purchase price of Bitcoin long-term holders" to the "average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders."
The average purchase price of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, typically referring to investors holding for more than 155 days) compared to short-term holders (STH, typically referring to investors holding for less than 155 days), expressed as (LTH Realized Price / STH Realized Price), mainly reflects the relative cost basis differences among different holder groups in the Bitcoin market, thereby revealing market cycle phases, investor sentiment, and potential reversal signals.
A lower ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is lower relative to short-term holders, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market or at the peak. At this time, short-term holders (often new entrants) buy at higher prices, leading to their higher cost basis, while long-term holders hold at lower costs. This situation reflects an overheated market, strong demand but insufficient supply, and may signal an impending price correction or a transition into a bear market, as new participants are likely to capitulate in price fluctuations.
A higher ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is higher relative to short-term holders, commonly seen at the bottoms of bear markets or in recovery stages. Short-term holders may buy at lower prices (for example, after panic selling), while long-term holders have a relatively higher cost basis (due to their earlier purchases). This reflects that market capitulation behavior is occurring, with recent participants realizing losses, and the market may enter an accumulation phase, signaling a potential upward reversal until prices exceed the cost of short-term holders or long-term holder groups adjust.
Changes in LTH/STH can serve as indicators for assessing market health and the distribution of holder behavior, helping to determine whether one is in a state of excessive optimism or panic.
See original
In the first half of 21, BTC's top range was slightly preempted, and still preempted four years later. One can't help but admire the instincts of Wall Street 🥸
See original
BTC breaks below $90,000, many people have been breached...
Yesterday, many bulls in the social circle had their hearts broken, and even a giant whale accurately sold at the lowest point of over $89,000 (I don't understand, but I was greatly shocked.GIF🐶)
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
Login to explore more contents