Just when I thought the old script of "once every four years" was about to continue, I was caught off guard by the operations of global central banks, and institutions quietly changed the rules behind the scenes—now the crypto market is simply more thrilling than unboxing blind boxes! 🤯
Last night's financial circle can be described as a "central bank grand gathering"; everyone brought out their best moves: the Federal Reserve took the lead and directly cut interest rates to a three-year low, this wave of "liquidity" signals directly caused the market to explode; before that was fully digested, the Bank of England also hinted that it is very likely to follow with a rate cut next week; the most outrageous is Japan, where others are easing, it instead sent out news about reverse interest rate hikes, this reverse operation directly turned the market into a "split scene."
On one side, the weak employment data continuously strengthens global interest rate cut expectations, and funds are eager to find undervalued areas; on the other side, clouds of interest rate hikes in Japan loom overhead, and many people are worried that this will disrupt the flow of global funds. Some friends may ask, if Japan's interest rate hike really lands, won't the crypto market shake? Don't worry; the intricacies here are deep. 💡
Based on my years of monitoring the market, even if Japan does raise interest rates this time, the market will likely 'drift by' without any sensation. Why do I say this? The core reason is that speculators have already laid their groundwork in advance. You should know that what the capital market lacks the least is 'smart money'; long before the news was released, many funds had already positioned themselves in the long yen, and Japanese government bond yields had already risen in advance, meaning the market had already digested this expectation. By the time the news actually lands, it might even lead to a 'bad news fully priced in' situation, and everyone must understand this clearly and not be misled by surface-level news.
Compared to the small ripples caused by Japan's interest rate hike, what everyone should be more vigilant about is the movement of institutional funds—this is the key to rewriting market logic! In the past, we always said that the 'halving narrative' was the fuse for a bull market; as long as the halving approached, the market would likely have hope. But now it's different; institutional funds have become the dominant force in the market, and this group of 'big players' is much more cautious than retail investors.
Especially as the Federal Reserve's attitude is currently wavering, sometimes signaling easing and other times worrying about inflation rebounding, this uncertainty directly makes institutional funds hesitant to enter the market, leading to a sluggish rise in mainstream cryptocurrencies, completely lacking the previous relentless momentum. This is also why the market has been fluctuating recently; while it seems lively, it's challenging to grasp the rhythm—it's not that the cycle has disappeared, but the logic driving the market has changed. Clinging to the 'halving narrative' will eventually lead to pitfalls!
Barclays recently issued a warning, stating that if there are no new catalysts in the future, 2026 could be a 'year of decline.' I couldn't help but laugh at this; friends familiar with the financial circle know that such warnings from institutions often carry 'contrarian indicator' properties, and it might end up being a 'face-slapping scene' again. 😎 However, we can't completely dismiss it, as it at least points out a key issue: what the market lacks now is not capital, but a clear direction and new growth points.
In this volatile market, there is also a clear characteristic: the rotation of hot spots is accelerating. Previously, a hot spot could last for several days, but now it might still be a hot topic in the morning and cool down by the afternoon. However, there are still opportunities; recently, a project called PUPP IES has emerged on the Ethereum chain, gaining community popularity with its adorable style. Such small and beautiful projects often become a 'safe haven' for funds in a volatile market, so everyone should keep an eye on them, but remember not to blindly chase high prices, as the risks are always more significant than the opportunities in a volatile market.
Lastly, let me share some heartfelt thoughts: is the current market truly on the eve of a 'super cycle' or the beginning of an 'sideways era'? In my view, rather than getting caught up in these grand narratives, it might be better to focus on the changes in market logic. Under institutional leadership, the market will become more rational and will test everyone's professionalism even more; the era of making money based on luck has passed. What lies ahead is a battle of cognition and patience.
I will continue to monitor the movement of institutional funds and the policy changes of global central banks, and I will break down new trends for everyone at the first opportunity. What do you think the market will do next? Will it continue to fluctuate and bottom out, or will it kick off a new trend early? Feel free to leave comments for discussion, and follow me @链上标哥 so you won't get lost! I'll help you see through the underlying logic of the crypto market! See you in the next issue! 👋
