At 8:17 this morning, my phone vibrated as if it were in vibration mode; the major discussion groups exploded into chaos like a market. Someone typed with a tearful voice: "Is this going to go down directly?" Even more extreme was someone who dropped a message saying, "I'm leaving the group first; out of sight, out of mind," and then disappeared. The scene was livelier than trying to get tickets during the New Year.
I stared at the numbers jumping on the screen, my palms were indeed sweaty, but the words typed out by my fingertips were exceptionally calm: "Hold steady! This isn't a collapse; it's the panic-induced 'bloody chips' that are coming out, and the opportunity to pick up the bargains is here." Sure enough, the subsequent plot unfolded exactly as scripted—an afternoon rebound, an increase of nearly a thousand points, and the brothers who kept pace were already smiling as they pocketed their gains. Although it wasn't the kind of overnight wealth myth, this solid profit is what we ordinary people can grasp.
Surely someone will ask: 'How do you know this isn't a real collapse? Aren't you afraid of catching a falling knife?' The answer is very simple: I stayed up late last night and clearly identified all potential risk points, which I had already written into the trading plan.
Let me first share some valuable insights; don't just watch the excitement without understanding the nuances. The core logic of this abnormal movement can be summarized in three points; if you understand them, you won't panic: first, the interest rate hike expectations from the eastern island nations, with the market giving an 80% probability; this isn't sudden, there have been whispers for a long time; second, sizable carry trades facing closure pressure; the exit of this capital is a short-term shock, not a trend reversal; third, with the Christmas holiday approaching, market liquidity is naturally tightening, and even a slight breeze can amplify volatility. The combination of these three factors led to this morning's frightening scene, but these are all predictable 'known risks,' not some uncontrollable black swans.
Back to this morning's live trading operation, why did I dare to let everyone take action while repeatedly emphasizing 'don't be impulsive'? The subtleties here are more important; remembering them can help you avoid many pitfalls.
At 9:02, the digital pullback reached around 83200, and many people in the group urged me: 'Quick, let everyone go all in, or it will be gone!' I directly poured a bucket of cold water: 'You can enter with the first test position, but if you want to go all in, wait a bit longer; comfortable orders are often traps.' Sure enough, some hesitated, thinking 'it's already dropped this much, why not go all in?', but I knew too well that in a panic market, the worst thing is to be impulsive and go all in; if there's another wave of selling, there would be no chance to turn things around.
At 9:38, the market indeed continued to dive, and the previously noisy group instantly fell silent; many people probably already cut their losses quietly, even lacking the strength to type. Seeing this, I added: 'Remember our principle: it's not about blindly catching the bottom, but stealthily accumulating positions in batches, breaking down risks; every entry must be confident.'
At 10:15, the most critical moment arrived—panic selling had basically subsided, and prices began to stabilize. I immediately posted the second entry point in the group, while reiterating the 'three no principles': no chasing highs, no going all in, no betting on a single piece of news. Those who entered at this time truly grasped the essence of this volatility.
When the market rebounded in the afternoon, the group became lively again, and a longtime fan said something that really resonated with me: 'In the past, when faced with such a market, I would have panicked and made erratic trades; this time, following you, I wasn't panicked at all and even made money. This feeling is so refreshing!' To be honest, this statement makes me happier than any profit screenshot because I have always believed that teaching people not to panic and to judge is more important than simply helping everyone make money once.
Taking advantage of this market, I want to clarify three truths to everyone, especially friends in this field; you must engrave them in your minds:
First, short-term funding shocks are never the end of the world. Just like this time's carry trade closure, it seems significant, but essentially it's just 'short-term capital relocation'; the market's core logic hasn't changed. As long as the core logic remains, what falls will always have a chance to rise again.
Second, the ones who can make money in the long term are never the ones with the biggest guts. Those who panic and cut losses at the first sign of a downturn, or rush to buy at the first sign of an upturn, may seem bold, but they are actually gambling on luck and will eventually be educated by the market; those who truly survive are the ones who do their homework in advance and know how to manage risk.
Third, only those who survive have the right to eat the rebound. This is the most basic truth and also the core principle. No matter how tempting the market is, never put all your chips on the line; keep a safety margin to seize opportunities when others are in panic and to catch up when the market reverses.
Finally, let me clarify to everyone that for the next period of time, I will focus on one thing: managing positions well, and slowly collecting chips with everyone. After all, there are several key nodes ahead, the meetings in the eastern island nations and the Fed's dot plot, each of which could trigger volatility, and the market is likely to continue being 'scary'.
But remember one thing: money always comes from panic, and opportunities always lie in others' fears. In today's market, are you the one who got scared away, or the one who quietly collected chips with me? Follow me@链上标哥 , don't get lost!
#加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH
