Let me ask you a heart-wrenching question: When you opened the market software this morning and saw Bitcoin drop below 88K, were you thinking about buying the dip or just wanting to run away? Don't rush to answer, first take a look at the 'combination punches' coming this week - non-farm data, inflation indicators, and the intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials, plus that big monetary policy drama from Japan. Goodness, it’s clear that the intention is to rub the market into the ground!
As an old hand who has been in the circle for eight years, let me put it this way: There is only one survival rule this week - short! Remember the three 'no's: Don't blindly buy the dip; buying the dip might just get you halfway up the mountain; don't catch flying knives with bare hands; flying knives will only hurt you deeply; and absolutely do not touch longs without a clear reversal signal; don't gamble your capital on the market's mercy.
Some people might argue: 'Wasn't the interest rate hike in Japan expected a long time ago?' I addressed this in my analysis last week. You might want to look back at historical data: Since last year, every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, the cryptocurrency has dropped at least 20 points each time. In March, it fell more than 20%, in July it fell more than 20% again, and this January it fell a staggering 30%. If there were really 'complete expectations,' why does it still crash so badly every time the news comes out?
Here’s the truth from the circle: The so-called 'market expectations' are, to put it bluntly, just the pie drawn for retail investors, a placebo to comfort themselves. Real crashes never happen before news comes out, but after 'the shoe has completely dropped.' Why? Because institutions have already sneaked out using 'expectations.' By the time retail investors react, all that's left is to take the fall. Just like this morning when the cryptocurrency dropped below 88K; it wasn't a coincidence, it was a signal that funds were escaping in advance. When the non-farm payroll, inflation data, and U.S. stock market trends resonate, the drop might exceed many people's imaginations.
To be honest, I didn't pay much attention to the small fluctuations over the weekend. Experienced players in the circle know that liquidity is poor on weekends, and occasional spikes are just 'illusions' that don't count. What really determines the market's life and death is still the core data of this week. Moreover, the current cryptocurrency circle doesn't have its own independent narrative; to put it bluntly, it's just a 'follower' of tech stocks. If the U.S. stock market shows any sign of weakness, the cryptocurrency will always be the first to kneel. Think about the last time the U.S. stock market fell sharply last year; which time did the cryptocurrency not collapse first? This logic hasn't changed to this day.
Finally, a reminder for everyone: When the market is good, everyone thinks they are a stock god; when the market is bad, that's when you can see who truly has the skills. This week is likely to be a test of mindset, don't be swayed by the market's fluctuations, and don't listen to those 'big influencers' misleadingly talking about bottom-fishing. If you don't know how to judge reversal signals, or want to understand specific operational rhythms, follow me @链上标哥 , so you won't get lost!
