Family, I am Anna. Open your eyes and look at the ZEC in your hands! The one-hour candlestick shows the MACD death cross grinning beneath the zero axis—this is not an adjustment, it is a meticulously planned 'hunt'. Every tiny rebound you see now may be bait set by the hunters.
1. Current situation: Smart money has quietly withdrawn, are you still waiting for a 'miracle'?
The chart is clear: the price is struggling around 405.7, while the upper range of 438-479 looms like two mountains. But the truth is, the MACD dual lines have formed a 'death cross' below the zero axis, which is usually a confirmation signal for a downtrend, not the starting point. This indicates that, well before the chart signaled, astute large funds may have already begun distribution. Now, every upward test is very likely aimed at trapping more bottom-fishers. Ask yourself, are you bottom-fishing, or are you just taking over?
2. Key Position Revelation: 438 is not a target, but a 'verdict.'
Many people are focusing on 438, thinking that if it breaks through, there will be a chance. I will tell you a brutal perspective: in a downtrend, the first strong resistance level is often not meant to be broken but to confirm the strength or weakness of the trend, serving as a 'touchstone.' Even if the price lucks into the vicinity of 438, it will encounter massive selling pressure. At that time, it is not only pressure but also the 'execution ground' of bull confidence. And 479, which is higher? Given the current market sentiment and technical structure, it resembles an unattainable 'mirage.'
The real danger lies below. The short-term support range of 380-438 is very fragile, and once broken, the market's focus will shift directly to 353. But this is not the end; the bottom support around 300 is what this wave of decline may truly want to test. Remember, in a bear market structure, support levels are meant to be broken until all faith is shattered, and only then will the true bottom emerge.
3. Player Survival Guide: Give Up Illusions, Prepare for 'Guerrilla Warfare'
For holders (especially those stuck at high levels): a rebound to around 438 is your window to cut losses and escape, not a charge to add positions. Don't pray for a V-shaped reversal; the trend is your friend, and right now, it's a friend of the bears.
For those on the sidelines: Want to bet on a short-term rebound? Only test with small positions near key support (like 353), set 438 as your take-profit, and place your stop-loss at a lower level. But this is like licking blood off a knife's edge; you need to ask yourself if you have the execution power and luck for this.
For everyone: The current core strategy is 'watch more, act less, preserve strength.' Profits in a downtrend are earned by waiting, not snatching. I've seen too many fans impulsively enter the market because they 'felt a rebound' and ended up deeply trapped.
One of my core fans, Old Li, last month, in a similar situation, strictly followed the discipline of 'not going long near resistance levels, just observing,' and avoided a 30% crash. He later said: The market lacks opportunities, but it lacks capital to survive until tomorrow.
4. Market Prediction and Final Advice
The most likely scenario is: prices will fluctuate repeatedly at the current level, exhausting the bulls' last patience, and then slide down towards the 353 line. If a breather can be obtained here, there will be a slightly stronger rebound to test resistance, but if it breaks down directly with volume, 300 will be exposed to bear attacks.
There are no gods in the crypto world, only reverence for the rules. The current ZEC needs not faith, but a cold trading plan and iron discipline. Do you already possess these?
I am Anna, using the perspective of the market to talk about protecting your capital. Pay attention to @南安娜sol , in the next article I will reveal: how to not only avoid crashes but also profit steadily in a bear market through the 'reverse key level layout method.' In this game, those who survive are the winners. If you want to follow trades or have any questions, you can contact Anna directly in the chat room; I will respond to everything I see!
