Do you think institutions have all gone on holiday? You're overthinking it.
#加密市场反弹 Every year before Christmas, Americans love to do one thing the most, which is to finish rehearsing the script for the first quarter of next year in advance.
#美联储FOMC会议 Every set of data this week is a heavy blow, specifically targeting emotions and retail investors.
#加密市场观察 For $ETH, the next five days will determine whether it stands firm or falters.
#ETH走势分析 On Tuesday night, non-farm payroll data.
Don't treat it as an employment report; essentially, this is the 'interest rate cut reference answer' handed to the Federal Reserve.
Good data = economy can still hold = no need to rush to cut interest rates.
And now the biggest fantasy in the market is, "Interest rates will be cut in January."
This breath, ETH is being held up by interest rate cut expectations, and once those expectations loosen, the blunt force will come very quickly.
On Thursday night, CPI, the real bomb.
Even if inflation just slightly rises, all 'dovish statements' will immediately evaporate.
Why was the last round of the market able to rise?
Because inflation peaked → interest rate cut expectations took shape.
The first switch in this logic chain is the CPI.
Once it twists in the wrong direction, the market will change its face instantly.
Interspersed throughout the week are the remarks of New York Fed Chairman Williams.
Remember his identity — someone from the core decision-making circle.
What he said is not a viewpoint, but expectation management.
When the market heats up, his only duty is to pour cold water.
In my personal judgment, his tone will likely be more hawkish than most people expect, for a very simple reason:
Eliminate unrealistic fantasies.
On Friday morning, there is also a 'hidden BOSS' that many people overlook — the Bank of Japan.
The world's last zero-cost capital pool may be closing.
If negative interest rates really end, it means the past decade or so.
The money that 'borrows yen and speculates on global assets' will start to pay back.
When liquidity tightens, the first to be hit among risk assets is never cash, but something like ETH.
So what should retail investors do? Here’s the most straightforward response strategy:
1️⃣ Before the CPI comes out, watch more and act less, or even not at all.
Placing bets before the obvious event is not bravery; it’s beginner behavior.
A true hunter waits for the gunshot to settle.
2️⃣ Focus on 'buying expectations, selling facts'.
If the data is pulled up sharply at first, it will instead drop when it lands.
That’s not the market being bearish; it’s that the good news has already been overdrawn, and large funds are taking advantage to sell off.
This is the most classic and easiest way to kill at year-end.
The year-end market has never been won by courage.
Rather, it relies on understanding the rhythm and avoiding emotions.
This is not a holiday; this is a settlement week.
One wrong step, and the entire holiday will be hard to get through.
#美联储降息
