“80,000 USD to buy BTC at the bottom, panicked when it dropped to 70,000; just sold at a loss and then it rebounded, should I chase it?”—This is the most common question in private messages on Binance Square this week. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the crypto market is experiencing a “roller coaster” trend, with Bitcoin plummeting 30% in six weeks, and ETF funds flowing out by 3.79 billion USD, with BlackRock's daily redemption amount reaching 523 million USD. However, in my opinion, this is not the beginning of a bear market, but a “golden entry window” for long-term investors, and the key is to find the right judgment indicators.
As an analyst who has experienced three bull and bear markets, I never advise everyone to chase highs and sell lows, but rather to focus on two core dimensions: first, macro policy signals, and second, on-chain institutional movements. From a macro perspective, after the Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut in 2025, the market presented a “buy the expectation, sell the fact” trend, with Bitcoin oscillating in the range of 88,000 to 93,000 USD; this sideways state is often a precursor to a trend reversal. Historical data shows that 3-6 months after an interest rate cut, the crypto market is likely to welcome a new round of increases, and now is a good time for regular investments.
Let me share two highly practical indicators with everyone:
The first is 'Institutional Holdings Change', where you can check the holding trends of institutions like Harvard University and Metaplanet through Nansen data. Recently, these institutions have started to increase their holdings on dips, which is a strong bullish signal.
The second is 'Support Level Validation'. The key support level for Bitcoin is in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 USD, while Ethereum is between 2,400 to 2,500 USD. When the price touches the support level and there is an increase in trading volume, you can enter with a small position. In the 'Market Tools' on Binance Square, you can set up support level alerts to avoid missing entry opportunities.
The last reminder for everyone is that the dollar-cost averaging strategy is a 'weapon' in a volatile market. Taking Bitcoin as an example, investing a fixed amount of 1000 USD each month at the current price of around 85,000 USD is a 32% discount compared to the peak of 126,000 USD on October. At the same time, it's important to control the position, and the proportion of crypto assets in a high-risk investment portfolio should not exceed 10%. I will later release a 'Dollar-Cost Averaging Calculator' tool on Binance Square to help everyone accurately calculate returns. Follow me@链上标哥 to stay on track! Don't blindly catch the bottom.
