#日本央行加息可能至比特币跌破7万 $BTC Multiple macro analysts in the market believe that if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as scheduled on December 19, Bitcoin is highly likely to fall below the $70,000 mark. This judgment is supported by historical patterns and aligns with the current market logic, with specific analyses as follows:
1. There is a clear historical correlation between interest rate hikes and Bitcoin's sharp decline: After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in March 2024, Bitcoin fell by 23%. The rate hike in July of the same year corresponded to a decline of 26%, and the interest rate hike in January 2025 caused Bitcoin to plummet by 31%. Currently, the market has priced in a 91.4% probability of this interest rate hike, and it is expected that the interest rate will rise to 0.75%, the highest since 1995. The market is generally worried that this pattern will be repeated, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin.
2. Yen arbitrage liquidation will trigger selling pressure on Bitcoin: For a long time, the yen has been a source of cheap funds globally. Investors often borrow low-interest yen to exchange for other currencies to purchase Bitcoin for arbitrage trading. Once the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the yen will strengthen, borrowing costs will also rise, and arbitrage traders will concentrate on selling Bitcoin and other risk assets to repay loans, which will directly withdraw funds from the crypto market and severely impact Bitcoin's price.
3. Technical indicators show bearish signals supporting the downtrend: The daily chart of Bitcoin shows a typical bearish flag pattern. Previously, it had dropped significantly from the $105,000 - $110,000 range, and this pattern indicates that the downtrend is likely to continue. If it effectively breaks below the support of the pattern, the estimated target range for its decline points to $70,000 - $72,500.
4. Current market liquidity is insufficient to withstand the impact: On December 15, Bitcoin had already fallen to around $88,000, and the 24-hour trading volume decreased by 21.13%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies also fell below the 7-day average of $3.08 trillion, indicating weak market liquidity. At this time, the liquidity contraction triggered by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike will make it even harder for an already weak market to resist selling pressure, further increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $70,000.
