Many people are entangled in two questions:
1️⃣ Is U.S. policy more important, or is BTC itself falling?
In the short term, policy is the fuse; but what really determines the trend is BTC's own structure.
The current market is not 'damaged by policy', but rather it has been in a prolonged high-level fluctuation and lacks the motivation to continue climbing. Any negative news will be amplified. In other words: it's time for a correction, and policy is just a facilitator.
2️⃣ Will Japan's interest rate hike definitely crash the cryptocurrency market?
It will not simply replicate a 'straight-line plunge'.
The core impact of Japan's interest rate hike is to tighten arbitrage funds, which is bearish for risk assets, but this matter has already been repeatedly discussed in the market, and the expectations themselves have already been partially priced in.
The real destructive power is not at the 'moment of the rate hike', but in the gradual return of funds and the tightening of liquidity, leading to more fluctuations and repeated pulls rather than a one-step waterfall.
Summary:
👉 BTC is in its own adjustment cycle; policy is just an amplifier;
👉 The yen's interest rate hike is bearish but more like 'chronic consumption', not a quick kill.
