BTC pullback risk is rising! The Nasdaq rebound is stagnating, with $80K becoming the focal point. Bitcoin has rebounded from the low of $80K on November 21 to $93K, but closed last week with a long upper shadow and a small body candle, facing strong rejection above $94K, with selling pressure dominating. Currently, it has dropped back to around $89,600, and the three-week counter-trend rising channel is at risk of breaking. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, with the weekly MACD turning bearish, suggesting volatility may decline or transmit to BTC (historically strongly positively correlated, with BTC amplifying declines during downturns). The MOVE index (30-day implied volatility of government bonds) has a hammer candlestick, indicating volatility may rise, with global tightening pressure intensifying and risk assets under pressure. Historically, BTC has been negatively correlated with MOVE. Key levels: breaking below the channel bottom, directly probing the $80K low; breaking above $94K-$95K to regain short-term bullishness, with strong resistance at $96K-$100K (50-day SMA + equilibrium cloud).
