Several key U.S. economic data points from December 15-19, 2025, place Bitcoin at a critical juncture. Analysts are divided between fears of a significant correction and hopes that the central bank's policies could mitigate potential impacts.
The upcoming BOJ data also adds to the situation as Bitcoin prepares for a turbulent week, with markets assessing a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 75 basis points on December 19. This move often causes drops of 20-30%.
U.S. economic data that crypto traders should watch this week
With Bitcoin's price consolidating near the psychological level of $90,000, macroeconomic signals are expected to significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and short-term price direction this week.
The upcoming U.S. economic data could move markets in the third week of December.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Tuesday, December 16 at 8:30 AM ET
The November Nonfarm Payrolls report is the first comprehensive look at U.S. labor conditions since September. It is also a key input into how the markets price the Fed's policy path through 2026.
Consensus forecasts indicate a sharp slowdown in job creation, with only 50,000 jobs expected, down from 119,000 in October, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.4% to 4.5%.
Recent private payroll data has already tilted sentiment towards a softer outcome. The latest ADP report showed a surprising contraction of 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations that the labor market is slowing down faster than previously thought.
Traders are increasingly seeing the NFP as a crucial catalyst, especially as Bitcoin is stuck in a tight fork near $90,000.
A stronger than expected result could revive the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, which may pressure BTC towards the $85,000 support area. Conversely, a weak report, especially below the 40,000–50,000 range, would likely reinforce dovish narratives and open the door for a rise towards $95,000 or more as liquidity hopes rise again.
Overall, sentiment remains cautious, with many highlighting the risk of sharp moves amid weakening liquidity.
Initial jobless claims – Thursday, December 18 at 8:30 AM ET
Weekly initial jobless claims are also another U.S. economic data point to watch this week. This data point provides a quicker picture of labor market stress. It shows how many U.S. citizens applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the previous week.
For the week ending December 13, applications are expected to be 223,000, down from the previous week's 236,000, which itself marked a sharp rise from 192,000.
That recent rise was widely interpreted as a sign of evolving cracks in the labor market, which raised expectations for rate cuts and provided Bitcoin with a dovish tailwind, even as BTC briefly dipped below $90,000 before its return.
Traders largely viewed the increase in claims as supportive for crypto, linking cooling labor conditions to a higher probability of Fed easing.
In Thursday's release, a print over 230,000 is likely to reinforce BTC's gentle narrative and support a rise. However, a stronger than expected figure below 220,000 could temper rate cut bets and trigger a pullback towards the $88,000 area.
Many traders view the data as neutral or rising in the current macro environment but warn of volatile price movements if markets revert to 'sell the news' behavior.
November CPI – Thursday, December 18 at 8:30 AM ET
Perhaps the most important U.S. economic data this week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The delayed November CPI report, postponed due to 46 days of U.S. government shutdown, is perhaps the week's most significant release.
Overall inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.1% year-over-year (YoY) from 3.0%, while the core consumer price index is forecasted to remain stable at 3.0%.
Although inflation remains clearly above the Fed's 2% target, any signs of cooling could bolster expectations for rate cuts as early as March.
The mood on X is polarized but tilting positive: a weight below 2.8% could trigger a risk event that lifts Bitcoin towards $95,000, while a reading above 3.2% threatens a hawkish repricing and a drop towards $85,000.
As U.S. inflation data aligns with broader global central bank developments, including a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, traders widely view CPI as the ultimate liquidity test.
Together with labor data, it could determine whether Bitcoin rises or expands its consolidation near $90,000.
