This interest rate hike impact simulation (high pricing 90%+, unwind has partially advanced) Bearish path (probability 60%): Yen appreciation → remaining arbitrage positions closing → risk asset sell-off. ETH short-term correction 10-20%, target $2,800-$2,900 (testing lower support). If a hawkish statement is made (implying 1% by 2026), it could expand to $2,700. Neutral/Bullish path (probability 40%): "sell the fact" followed by quick digestion. Stabilizing at $3,000 → rebound towards $3,400-$3,500 (ETF inflows + Fusaka upgrade residual effects + low liquidity Santa Rally during Christmas).