This power transition not only concerns policy but will also profoundly affect market liquidity and sentiment.
The table below outlines the basic situations of the three main candidates, helping you quickly grasp key information.
Potential market impact of the power transition
Short-term volatility may intensify: The power transition itself brings uncertainty. The market will closely watch Trump's nomination (expected at the end of 2025 or early 2026) and the subsequent congressional hearings. During this process, any statements regarding the candidates' policy inclinations could trigger significant short-term market fluctuations. Historical experience shows that during the transition period of the Federal Reserve Chair, the market is prone to adjustments.
Key direction of long-term policy: The biggest impact lies in the direction of long-term monetary policy. If an extremely dovish chair takes office and implements aggressive interest rate cuts and other easing policies to stimulate the economy, injecting a large amount of liquidity into the market, then according to historical patterns, some of this 'water' is likely to flow into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Some analysts, such as Galaxy Digital's CEO Mike Novogratz, have suggested that in such an extreme scenario of 'mass liquidity', Bitcoin could usher in a super bull market. Of course, such aggressive monetary policy also carries the risks of uncontrollable inflation and harm to economic health.
Expected improvement in the regulatory environment: Among the current candidates, they generally show a more open attitude towards financial innovation than ever before. If a more crypto-friendly chair takes office, it may encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt clearer and more supportive positions on key issues like stablecoin regulation, which will undoubtedly provide long-term institutional guarantees and development space for the industry.
Summary and Outlook
In summary, Powell's departure is one of the most significant macro events in the crypto market in 2026. It may break the original 'four-year cycle' pattern, extending the bull market until 2026. For investors, there is no need to try to predict the final outcome and place bets; rather, they should closely monitor developments, especially the nomination of the new chair and the clarification of their policy stance, and assess its long-term impact on market liquidity accordingly.
I hope this information helps you better understand potential changes in the future. If you have more specific questions about a particular candidate's policy proposals or possible regulatory changes, I would be happy to provide further analysis.
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