Between December 15 and 19, 2025, Bitcoin is at a critical point. Analysts are divided between fears of a major correction and hopes that Federal Reserve policy will mitigate potential impacts.

Upcoming Bank of Japan data adds to the mix, as Bitcoin prepares for a turbulent week with markets indicating a 98% chance of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 75 basis points on December 19. This move often leads to declines of 20-30%.

With Bitcoin's price stabilizing near the psychological level of $98,400, macroeconomic signals are expected to play an important role in shaping Fed price expectations and short-term price direction this week.

U.S. economic data next week may impact the markets in the third week of December.

1/ Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) – Tuesday, December 16, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time

The non-farm payroll report for November is the first comprehensive glimpse of labor conditions in the U.S. since September. It is also a key entry point in how markets are pricing the Fed's policy path through 2026.

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Recent private payroll data has already tilted sentiment towards a softer outcome. The latest ADP report showed a surprising contraction of 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations that labor market momentum has begun to wane faster than previously thought.

Traders increasingly view the NFP as a critical catalyst, especially with Bitcoin trapped in a tight range approaching $90,000.

Stronger than expected forecasts may lead to a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, which could pressure Bitcoin towards the support area of $85,000. Conversely, a weak report, especially if it is below $40,000 to $50,000, is likely to bolster emotional narratives, opening the door for a rebound towards $95,000 or more as hopes for liquidity return.

Overall, sentiment remains cautious, as many highlight the risk of sharp moves amid decreasing liquidity.

Initial unemployment claims – Thursday, December 18, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time

Initial weekly unemployment claims are also another American economic data point to watch this week. This figure will provide a more direct reading on labor market pressures. It shows the number of Americans who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time in the previous week.

Claims are expected to reach 223,000 for the week ending December 13, down from 236,000 the previous week, which represents a sharp jump from 192,000.

This recent rise has been widely interpreted as a sign of cracks in the labor market, bolstering rate cut expectations and providing a tailwind for Bitcoin, even as Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000 before rebounding.

Traders largely saw that rising claims support cryptocurrencies, linking deteriorating labor conditions with a greater likelihood of Fed easing.

For Thursday's release, a rise above 230,000 is likely to strengthen the positive narrative and high support for Bitcoin (BTC). However, a stronger than expected number below 220,000 may temper rate cut bets and stimulate a decline towards the $88,000 area.

Many traders see the data as neutral to bullish in the current macro environment, but they caution about price volatility if markets revert to a 'sell the news' behavior.

Consumer Price Index for November – Thursday, December 18, 8:30 AM Eastern Time

Perhaps the most important American economic data this week is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The delayed Consumer Price Index report for November, postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown for 46 days, is undoubtedly the most impactful release of the week.

Overall inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.1% year-on-year (annualized) from 3.0%, while the core Consumer Price Index is expected to remain stable at 3.0%.

While inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, any signs of a slowdown may bolster expectations for a rate cut as early as March.

Sentiment towards X is mixed but leans bullish: a price drop below 2.8% may push Bitcoin towards $95,000, while a reading above 3.2% risks a hawkish repricing and a drop towards $85,000.

As U.S. inflation data coincides with broader global central bank developments, including the possibility of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, traders widely see the Consumer Price Index as the ultimate test for liquidity.

Alongside labor data, it may determine whether Bitcoin breaks higher or extends its consolidation near $90,000.