Known risks are not risks; unknown variables are the real test.
Hello everyone, I am a crypto analyst focused on market dynamics. This new week is packed with events, and several macro events will directly impact market sentiment. I will explain the key points behind these events in simple terms, as well as their potential impact on risk assets.
Let me clarify, the following are all my personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice.
1. U.S. non-farm data: Pay close attention to this number.
On Tuesday evening, the U.S. will release non-farm employment data. This situation is quite special—due to the previous record government shutdown, the data for October could not be collected normally, so the data being released this week is a combination of October and November.
In September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. There is no separate previous value for comparison this time, and the market will pay more attention to the overall trend of the data.
My view is that as long as the new jobs in November do not exceed 150,000, this data may be favorable for risk assets (such as the stock market and cryptocurrencies). Why? Because this aligns with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's judgment on the gradual cooling of the job market, which will strengthen expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve's monthly technical balance sheet expansion of about $40 billion (this is not quantitative easing) is also providing liquidity to the market, which may boost market confidence.
2. Bank of Japan rate hike: the market is more concerned about the subsequent path.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. The market almost fully expects the central bank to raise the rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, which would be the highest level in thirty years.
But this matter has already been discussed for several months and has basically been digested by the market, so the rate hike itself is not too much of a surprise.
The real variable lies in the statements from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda during the press conference. What the market is most concerned about is: is this rate hike an isolated event, or the beginning of a continuous rate hike cycle? Will the central bank provide a clear path for future rate hikes?
If Ueda's hawkish comments suggest that there will be further rate hikes in the future, it may partially offset the positive impact of favorable U.S. data on risk assets. This is because a rate hike in Japan will attract funds back from other markets to Japan, affecting global liquidity distribution.
3. Other events to pay attention to.
U.S. CPI data: also released in a combined manner (October + November), lacking reference to previous values.
European Central Bank interest rate decision: it is expected to remain inactive and maintain the current interest rate level.
Several Federal Reserve officials are speaking: pay attention to their hints about next year's interest rate policy.
My overall judgment.
The market may be quite volatile this week. If U.S. employment data meets expectations, it will be favorable for risk assets; however, the Bank of Japan's decisions and forward guidance may become offsetting factors.
For ordinary investors, the key is to understand the concept of 'global interest rate differentials/changes in capital flows.' Changes in interest rate policies of major economies will affect the reallocation of funds across different global markets.
Known risks are never real risks because you can prepare in advance. Real risks come from unknown variables—such as what signals the Bank of Japan will actually convey.
This is why I suggest everyone pay more attention to macro events and understand the logic behind them. Learning one more skill means fewer requests for help.
I hope everyone has a successful investment in the new week! If you have more questions, feel free to leave a message for communication. Follow Ake to learn more first-hand information and cryptocurrency knowledge at precise points, becoming your guide in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 $ETH
