Regarding stablecoins and US stocks CRCL.
Currently, there is indeed a large divergence in the market, with both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives having their own complete logic.
The optimistic side is more about betting on the future adoption space of the crypto industry, believing that stablecoins will become the infrastructure connecting real-world finance and the on-chain world.
As for whether current profits are sufficient to support the current stock price, this is not their primary concern.
The pessimistic side believes that CRCL's profit model is relatively singular,
future competition will only become more intense, and there is still the presence of “big brother” Tether USDT.
A more realistic point is that,
so-called “compliance advantages” do not necessarily constitute a long-term moat.
What you can achieve in compliance, other large institutions will eventually be able to do as well.
When compliance becomes a threshold rather than a scarce ability, its support for valuation will significantly weaken.
My personal view is:
If one truly believes in the long-term development of the crypto industry, then assets like CRCL are logically investable.
But there is only one prerequisite, (price) is very important.
Starting from $100+, $200+, there are already people in the market who are desperately optimistic, as if “not buying means missing out on an era.”
As we have seen, within less than a month of opening, the stock price approached $300, and the market capitalization of a stablecoin company was more “excited” than the scale of the stablecoins it serves and carries.
This is clearly no longer just about fundamentals, but rather emotions and imagination are dominating the pricing.
Recently, it dropped to 64, and in the short term, it’s not surprising to see a technical rebound after such a drop. However, I believe it is almost impossible to return to new highs in a short time.
More time is needed to digest.
Let’s not discuss how many times it can rise in the future; even if it just returns to previous highs or new highs, in my view, if things go smoothly, it will at least take 2-3 years, and that’s under the premise of a relatively smooth development of the crypto industry with new narratives.
Investment has never been a test of faith, but a game of price, rhythm, and expectations.
Being optimistic about the industry and the variety does not mean one should participate at any price.
So at least at this position, I personally am not in a hurry.
