The case regarding Trump's tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court is adjudicating is not just a trade war; it is also a potential "deep-water bomb" that could shake the current market balance. For those of us involved in cryptocurrency, we can't just watch the spectacle.
Why should the crypto community pay attention to this lawsuit?
Because this ruling essentially defines how much power the U.S. President has to "make money" and "distribute money." The outcome will directly determine whether the "flow" into the crypto market is abundant or scarce. Current market odds predict a 76% chance that the court will at least overturn part of the tariffs.
If this comes true, it won't be a minor issue; the government could face up to 1 trillion dollars in tax refund pressures. Once this money returns to businesses and consumers, where will it go? A portion will likely become new liquidity entering the cryptocurrency market. It’s worth noting that uncertainty around tariffs has already caused many funds to treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" for hedging purposes.
Let's consider how the case might be decided and what we should do:
If the tariffs are overturned: It would be a short-term boon for the market. Imagine companies reclaiming massive cash amounts and global trade tensions easing. During this time, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum may attract capital inflow.
If the tariffs are upheld: This means the trade war continues, and uncertainty remains high. In this scenario, assets with actual use cases will be more stable. We should pay more attention to stablecoins and related projects that can truly serve a purpose in cross-border payments; they may gain support due to their practical "tool" attributes.
My personal view: Regardless of how this case is ruled, it points to a trend—global capital is searching for ways out of traditional systems. Tariffs are walls, and cryptocurrencies are one of the pathways outside them. The ruling itself may cause short-term fluctuations, but the long-term logic of capital seeking "digital anchors" will only strengthen.
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